Risk Assessment of Pipeline on Third-Party Damage in Oil and Gas Industry with Bayesian Network and Game Theory
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Date
2017-05-09
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Abstract
Tremendous amount of oil and gas products are transported in pipeline worldwide giving rise to a demand to identify the hazards and evaluate the associated risk. Third-party intrusion is usually one of the least factors being considered during the pipeline hazard assessment stage despite the substantial portion contributing to the total number of oil and gas pipeline incident. This is because of the probabilistic risk assessment defect that makes it hard to model human actions and cannot be applied to intentional acts. Due to the distinctive motivations of third-party damage, an unintentional third-party damage Bayesian Network model and a game-theoretic model on malicious intrusion will therefore be built, respectively to examine the mechanism of pipeline failure caused by this mode.
This study is conducted aiming at investigating pipeline risk resulting from third-party damage, and will formulate risk assessment models to identify threats, prioritize risks and determine which integrity plan should apply to different pipeline segments given the condition of third-party interference (both the accidental damage and malicious acts). In other words, it can help to anticipate an optimal planning of the in-line inspection intervals which can decrease the risk of the pipeline to an acceptable level and achieve cost-effective pipeline integrity management.
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Third-Party Damage