Tactical Decision Making in Terrorist Organizations
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Date
2022-04-19
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Abstract
From 1970 to 2019, approximately 71% of all terrorist attacks were classified as either a bombing or an armed assault. This pattern suggests that other tactical choices are made with less frequency and may need specific explanations. How are tactical decisions made within terrorist organizations? And what factors influence those decisions? While there is a robust political science literature on the causes and consequences of terrorism writ large, relatively little is known about how terrorist organizations approach decision-making across their tactical repertoires. In this dissertation, I will explore several potential factors that could influence how tactical decisions are made by terrorist organizations. First, I argue that terrorist organizations use specific tactics and expand the number of tactics employed in response to increasing uncertainty in the external operating environment, specifically in response to a state’s use of repressive actions. I argue that, where possible, terrorist organizations will match the state’s repression actions in subsequent at-tacks. Further, when a matching technique is no longer available, a terrorist organization will have no choice but to increase the number of tactical types it employs in an attempt to make its actions less predictable for the state. In the next two chapters, I approach the question of tactical decision-making from an organizational perspective, drawing upon literature on isomorphic pressures that organizations face. In the second empirical chapter, I develop an argument for terrorist professionalization based on the relationships between parent, affiliate, and allied organizations. The final empirical chapter pivots the focus to the relationship between parent, splinter, and rival organizations. Specifically, I argue that the existence of splinter and rival organizations are evidence of radical movements inside the profession, which tests the jurisdictional bounds of the profession. Developing and testing theories such as those suggested in this dissertation will bring the research community closer to capturing the reality of terrorist activities.
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terrorist, terrorism, terrorist organization, tactics, professionalization, professionalism, isomorphism, repression, decision-making