NOTE: This item is not available outside the Texas A&M University network. Texas A&M affiliated users who are off campus can access the item through NetID and password authentication or by using TAMU VPN. Non-affiliated individuals should request a copy through their local library's interlibrary loan service.
Real-time storm surge prediction for bays on the Texas Gulf coast
MetadataShow full item record
This thesis presents a new, real-time storm surge forecast system constructed around the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model. ADCIRC is a finite element circulation model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers to model large domains, including entire ocean basins, over long periods of simulated time. The United Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) model of Cardone et at. (1992) is used to generate hurricane wind and pressure fields from the elementary characteristics of a storm for input into ADCIRC. The goal of this research was to develop a flexible system of models for harbors along the Texas coastline to predict storm surge levels during major storm events. The scope of this research incorporates three areas of interest along the Texas Gulf coast: Galveston Bay (including the Houston Ship Channel), Matagorda Bay, and Corpus Christi Bay (to the inlet of Laguna Madre). The results of the model system are presented for two historic storms, hurricanes Alicia and Carla, as well as for the recent tropical storm Frances. The simulation data for hurricane Alicia compare very well to the actual measured total water level increase cause by the storm. The model results for hurricane Carla poorly represent the measured water level increases for stations located along the entire Texas coastline. The model results for tropical storm Frances have shown that the correlation between long-term forecast water levels and those actually observed improved later in the life of the storm. Overall, the best correlation between model and measured data is seen in locations that are east of the center of the modeled storm. The error in the modeled surge levels results from the simple vortex flow representation of a hurricane wind field by the PBL model which oversimplifies the actual wind field of a hurricane, particularly as a storm approaches and passes over a coastal boundary. The lack of correlation between the model and observed data may also result from the method used to estimate the radius to maximum winds for a storm, from the work of Jelesnianski and Taylor (1973). An additional source of error in the forecast simulation for Frances is the forecast information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), particularly since Frances was not a well organized storm.
DescriptionDue to the character of the original source materials and the nature of batch digitization, quality control issues may be present in this document. Please report any quality issues you encounter to email@example.com, referencing the URI of the item.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 66-70).
Issued also on microfiche from Lange Micrographics.
Kelley, Sean William (1999). Real-time storm surge prediction for bays on the Texas Gulf coast. Master's thesis, Texas A&M University. Available electronically from
Request Open Access
This item and its contents are restricted. If this is your thesis or dissertation, you can make it open-access. This will allow all visitors to view the contents of the thesis.