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dc.contributor.advisorRichardson, James W.
dc.creatorBailey, DeeVo
dc.descriptionTypescript (photocopy).en
dc.description.abstractThe marketing of agricultural commodities is a significant determinant in overall farm profitability and/or solvency. No past research has attempted to analyze the relative merits of different marketing strategies for agricultural commodities in future time periods using technical market indicators (moving averages, channels, etc.) in a whole-farm framework. This study analyzed 15 different marketing strategies for cotton on the Texas Southern High Plains. Discretionary hedging strategies, hedge and hold strategies, and no hedge strategies were considered. A typical cotton farm was developed for a three county area of the Texas Southern High Plains and analyzed using a dynamic, stochastic, Monte Carlo, simulation model under each of the 15 strategies. An autoregressive model was used to generate random daily cash and March futures prices for cotton over a 10-year planning horizon. Random cotton yields, grades, staple lengths, and ginnings dates for the Southern High Plains were also generated from their empirical multivariate probability density function. Stochastic dominance was used to determine preference for each of the marketing strategies relative to the other strategies considered for three risk preference categories, i.e., risk averse, risk neutral, and risk loving. The efficient set for each of these three risk categories was also determined. Only Strategy V (no hedge strategy using a 62-day channel of daily cash prices to signal transactions in the cash market) was included in the risk averter's efficient set. This analysis determined that following a separate, reliable, technical indicator in both the cash and futures markets to signal cash transactions and short hedging transactions, respectively, yielded superior results to using no technical indicator in terms of probabilities of survival and success, after-tax net present value, and ending financial position for a typical 2019 acre cotton farm in the Southern High Plains. The results of this study indicate the need to incorporate technical marketing strategies into whole-farm simulation models to reflect a more realistic economic environment for the farm. Methods for incorporating technical marketing strategies into a whole-farm simulation model are outlined in this study.en
dc.format.extentix, 191 leaves ;en
dc.rightsThis thesis was part of a retrospective digitization project authorized by the Texas A&M University Libraries. Copyright remains vested with the author(s). It is the user's responsibility to secure permission from the copyright holder(s) for re-use of the work beyond the provision of Fair Use.en
dc.subjectAgricultural Economicsen
dc.subject.classification1983 Dissertation B154
dc.subject.lcshMathematical modelsen
dc.titleEconomic analysis of selected marketing strategies for cotton in the Texas Southern High Plains : a whole-farm simulation approachen
dc.typeThesisen A&M Universityen of Philosophyen D. in Philosophyen
dc.contributor.committeeMemberAnderson, Carl G.
dc.contributor.committeeMemberNixon, Clair J.
dc.contributor.committeeMemberPenson, John B.
dc.format.digitalOriginreformatted digitalen
dc.publisher.digitalTexas A&M University. Libraries

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