Sales forecasting : an analysis of the accuracy of various time series forecasting techniques in selected consumer product industries

Abstract

Early 1973 marked the beginning of discussion of a new topic in the business community. It was at this time that the Securities and Exchange Commission lifted its ban on the publication of-financial forecasts. This action had a significant impact on a number of groups. Management was concerned because they were the group that would perform the forecast preparation. Security analysts were interested due to the fact that, with the availability of financial forecasts prepared by management, they would be better able to serve their clients - investors. Obviously, the investor himself was concerned with the possibility of having access to forecasted data. Finally, the accounting profession was most interested. Not until 1975 did this concern peak as it was not until then that the Securities and Exchange Commission decided to permit third party verification of a financial forecast. In all likelihood, this review would ultimately be performed by an independent CPA. Although all of the above groups realized that required forecast disclosure w-as upcoming, not all of them supported it. Obviously, analysts and investors did. Management did not and accountants were split on the issue. The overwhelming opposition to the proposal centered around the feeling that a forecast, by its nature, could never be guaranteed in terms of reliability. However, the fear existed that the user would assume the forecast was accurate and, when it ultimately was not, respond by bringing litigation against the issuer and/or reviewer..