Application of Real Options Analysis in the Valuation of Investment in Biodiesel Production

Abstract

There are basically two main methods used in the valuation of capital investments; the discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques, and the option pricing valuation (OPV) method. The DCF techniques and other net present value (NPV) methods when used to value investment projects that have flexibility in them tend to underestimate the values of the projects, because they fail to capture the value of the flexibility embedded in such projects. For biodiesel production, such flexibility may include the option to defer, expand, contract or abandon the project, should the economic environment necessitate that. Most biodiesel production projects have been valued using the DCF techniques. This paper evaluates the economic feasibility of converting WVO from the Army Barracks as well as other feedstock into biodiesel, using the OPV method so as to incorporate managerial flexibility in the production process. The log-transformed binomial method (LTBM) is envisaged for the real options analysis.