“Application of Critical Thinking Concepts to Determining the Most Likely Scenario “

Abstract

Chemical process incidents are typically accompanied by a complex chain of events involving multiple breakdowns of safeguards in “tightly coupled” systems. When identifying and determining the most likely scenario(s), there are several critical thinking skills essential for success of the investigation. Critical thinking techniques for developing, proving, disproving and evaluating potential hypothesis are examined. Common avoidable mistakes in scenario determination are identified using typical process incidents to demonstrate a more effective approach. This paper includes concepts that should be incorporated in the skill set for the investigation team.