Master of International Affairs (MIA) Capstones

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http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/94973

During their final semester, Master of International Affairs students participate in a capstone research course. These courses allow students to tackle a problem or project in the real world, often working in conjunction with a government agency or nonprofit organization. Designed to test the knowledge and abilities students have developed through their previous classes and experiences, capstones necessitate strong teamwork, careful research, writing ability, and often a large amount of ingenuity in identifying ways to approach an issue or find a solution.

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Do NGOs Deliver? The Role of NGOs in Responding to the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan
(2017-03-06) Fierros, Carlos; Jaloway, Kristian; Jones, Alissa; Mason, Mary Margaret; Shtepani, Christine; Shuler, Mariah; Spiva, Rainie; Ward, Jerica; Weir, Caroline;
Eleven million Syrians have fled their homes or have been killed as a result of the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011 (Mercy Corps, 2016). The violence, destruction of homes, human rights violations, and lack of access to basic necessities such as food and medication are the motivations for many Syrians to leave their homes and seek refuge in both neighboring countries and Europe. Each year has seen an exponential increase in the number of Syrian refugees; in 2012 there were 100,000 refugees and today there are 4.3 million refugees. This large increase each year contributes to the already significant workload for NGOs responding to the crisis.
Conflict, Earthquakes, and School Outcomes: Two Studies on Nepal
(2017-03-06) Brewer, Levi; Crowder, Leah; Lee, Minseok; Mikayilov, Elshad; Nepal, Sanmita; Perl, Alexandra; Hardin Tanguay, Brittany; Wendelbo, Morten;
The increased frequency of natural disasters globally has prioritized the need for a broader understanding of disaster resilience. More recently, on April 25 and May 12 of 2015, two major earthquakes devastated many Nepalese communities, inflicting damage on multiple sectors of the society. Given the enormous amount of damage caused by the earthquakes, this natural disaster is the greatest natural disaster tragedy to hit Nepal in over 80 years. Almost ten years before the earthquakes shook Nepal, ten years of destructive armed conflict came to a end. This study will examine the link between these two events, both conceptually and empirically, by addressing the question: Did conflict experience during the armed conflict in Nepal impact the degree of damage resulting from the 2015 earthquakes?
The 25th Anniversary of the Liberation of Kuwait: A Look at the History, Evolution, and Future of the US-Kuwaiti Relationship
(2017-03-06) Babcock, Evon; Best, Sara; Karle, Joseph; Knight, Sarah; Lattier, Brian; Moore, Katelyn; Nowicky, Mathue; Wilbur, Grant;
On August 2, 1990, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. The subsequent liberation by a US-led coalition served as a watershed moment in US-Kuwaiti relations. The Gulf War is often viewed as the onset of the close relationship between the United States and Kuwait; a relationship that still endures to this day. Though the two nations had little interaction prior to the invasion in 1990, the common American narrative about the Gulf War portrays the US as single-handedly liberating Kuwait from Iraqi forces and leaving a sizable force in Kuwait to defend the country’s sovereignty against Saddam. While certain aspects of this may hold true, this narrative unfairly paints Kuwait as the sole benefactor of American action – that the Kuwaitis have enjoyed a free ride off American military protection. In reality, the relationship between the US and Kuwait is mutually beneficial for both sides, and Kuwait funds the majority of US activities within the Gulf region. As a response to these misconceptions, this paper seeks to analyze and explain the true relationship between the US and Kuwait. This is done though a careful analysis of the partnership in three main sections. The first section will explain the origins of the relationship prior to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 with the Tanker Wars. The Gulf War served as catalyst to foster relations between the two countries. The second section demonstrates US-Kuwaiti cooperation during and after the war to show the evolution of the military, diplomatic, economic and environmental relationships. The final section analyzes the future of the relationship and offers recommendations for future policy. While Kuwait remains its closest Arab-Gulf ally, the US must not take the relationship for granted and collaboration with Kuwait on a variety of issues will ensure that the relationship continues to flourish.
Strengthening Ukraine: Policy Recommendations for the New Administration
(2017-03-06) Antonidis, Anthony; Berry, Chelsea; Cooper, Maddison; Dirksen, Meaghan; Dobbins, Cassidy; Hopkins, Danelle; Leon, Anthony; Rodriguez, Joe IV;
This project comprises four sections exploring how to strengthen Ukrainian institutions, the Ukrainian military, the Ukrainian economy, and how to assist the Ukrainians in countering Russian propaganda. Within each section we will present background on the topic and make recommendations for how the United States government can work with Ukraine.
Framing the Next Nuclear Posture Review: A State-Centric, Strategic Approach
(2017-03-06) Karrlsson-Willis, Charlotte; Moss, Russell; Zakrevska, Tetiana; Cleckner, Anna; Sparks, Ruth; Kannuthurai, Vinod;
The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), released by the Department of Defense (DoD) in 2010, announced an unprecedented shift in the U.S. nuclear policy away from state-based threats to nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism concerns. While these issues remain important, the evolving global strategic environment dictates that the next NPR return to a state-centric, strategic focus emphasizing four states: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The only strategic peer to the United States, Russia, is actively modernizing all aspects of its nuclear arsenal and has placed nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) at the center of its national security.1 China has overhauled the structure of its nuclear weapons program and nuclear and missile developments in North Korea are ongoing. Not long ago Iran reached the cusp of nuclear capability before the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The United States must now ensure that this agreement is implemented effectively. All of these developments make it impossible to ignore the importance of nuclear weapons in the U.S. global strategic posture today.
The Foundations of Judicial Legitimacy: Experimental Evidence from across Contexts
(2017-03-06) Barber, Jennifer; Höcker, Koen; Hoorwitz, Rachel; Taylor, Andrew; Walker, William;
In functioning states, despite a lack of authoritative power, judiciaries are respected and their rulings are adhered to by their respective citizens. This is known as judicial legitimacy. Popular support of the court exists even when decisions go against public opinion because people believe that the court is an unbiased regulator of society and the rule of law. In order to be effective, it is imperative for states’ citizens to trust in their judicial institutions despite their lack of enforcement capabilities. However, this is not always the case. During the United States Civil Rights Movement in the early 1960s, the Supreme Court case, Brown v. Board of Education, declared the racial segregation in schools unconstitutional. Several southern states ignored this decision, however, and it took other measures, such as the Civil Rights Act of 1964, outside the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction, to enforce the ruling. This study attempts to find out why the public views the judicial system within states as legitimate and apply it across Qatar and Benin contexts.
Exercises and Adversaries: The Risks of Military Exercises
(2017-03-06) Garrett, Alaina; Ford, Kerrie; Grimm, Matt; Haight, Nathaniel; Allison, Robert;
We argue that military exercises can create four types of risk—accidents, hostility, reciprocity, and crises. The level of risk an exercise creates is determined by two factors. The first factor is the political environment between the country running the exercise and the potential adversary. The second factor is the perceived level of threat an exercise creates for an adversary. Exercises that have close proximity to the adversary, have high magnitude, and have low transparency all increase the threat level of a military exercise. This creates incentives for an adversary to respond in a way that creates risks for all parties.
Youth Employment in Ghana: Conditions and Determinants
(2015-06-11) Barrett, Zachary; Berrios, Andrea; He, Yukuai; Larsen, Sean; Novoa, Miguel; Twumasi-Ankrah, Kwame; Vega, Camille; Mu, Ren
Youth employment, and its limitations, is a pertinent problem that most developing nations face. “Youth Employment in Ghana: Conditions and Determinants” is a student-led research project that summarizes and analyzes the conditions of youth employment in Ghana as of 2013. The purpose of this report is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of individual, household, and community characteristics on youth employment outcomes. This study finds that Ghana’s youth labor issues center around the low quality of jobs rather than unemployment. The findings highlight the issue of gender gap, the importance of family background and community infrastructure in youth labor outcomes.
Too Hot To Handle: Climate Change, Geopolitics, and U.S. National Security in 2025
(2007) Boggs, Jay W.; Chellinsky, Andrew; Ege, David; Hodges, Allen; Reynolds, Tripp; Williams, Adam; Layne, Christopher
Looking ahead to 2025, what policies should future US administrations consider as appropriate responses to climate change, and what level of commitment should be devoted to addressing global climate change by the US government? To answer the key question, the project addressed the following secondary issues: Based on the best scientific evidence currently available, what will the most likely manifestations of global climate change be by 2025? This includes aggregate changes (surface temperatures, rising sea levels) as well as discrete changes (drought, flooding, disease, storms, heat waves). With respect to the latter, what are the probabilities that such events will be more (or less severe) than they are today? Based on the answers to the above, how politically salient will the issue of responding to global climate change be in 2025 (globally, by geographic region/location, by coalitions of similarly situated countries)? What low-probability, but potentially catastrophic events, may occur and how should these be taken into account by US policy? Responding to global climate change could be costly financially. However, there also could be positive spin-offs from addressing the consequences of global climate change. What may these positive spin-offs be (new technologies, energy independence, health, multilateral leadership, reputation gains)?
China's Pathways to Energy Security
(2010) Beard, Steven; Caruana, Craig; Coats, Charles; Haguewood, Robert; Lee, Jong-Hwan; Morgan, Broderick; Murray, Joshua; Riedell, Michael; Layne, Christopher
This project explores the growing web of connections - specifically, in the area of energy interdependence among the East Asian states and India with oil producing states in the Persian Gulf region. These relations are characterized by producers seeking reliable markets and consumers seeking reliable suppliers. The project examines whether, and to what extent, these relations are primarily economic or geopolitical. An important issue is whether these relations herald a geostrategic shift with wealth and power flowing from West to East. The project also examines the implications of this relationship for the United States, which remains the principal security guarantor for both regions, even as most of the oil and gas the Sixth Fleet protects is going to free-riders in Asia.
What to Cut and How to Cut? Historical Lessons from Past Reductions in the Intelligence Community
(2012) Cook, Austin; Edmiston, William; Glenn, Stuart; Goodwin, Derek; Kaehr, Matthew; Nebl, James; Phares, Benjamin; Yang, Elizabeth; Yeo, Jessica; Castillo, Jasen
Under what conditions can the Intelligence Community cut its resources while still maintaining their effectiveness? What do past eras of reduction suggest about what to cut and how best to cut? The United States Government faces pressure to reduce its overall expenditures. This will likely spur calls to reduce the country’s foreign policy and defense budget. Under the current fiscal environment, these cuts will surely include the Intelligence Community, which grew rapidly over the last ten year’s. Prudent policymakers, therefore, should start thinking now about what they can cut and how they should implement these changes while still carrying out their missions effectively. This project will help the Intelligence Community think about these problems by examining the lessons learned from previous eras of reduction. The project will produce an article-length report as well as a briefing. Team members will brief the sponsor in their Washington, DC office.
Emerging Trends with a Significant Impact on the U.S. Intelligence Community
(2014) Stubblefield, Amber; Stockstill, Leah; Westerhof, Emily; Hopper, Eric; Pinones, Zach; Niegelsky, Mark; Mickle, Devon; Davis, Cristina; Rothrock, Caroline; Sievert, Ron
How has current culture affected the thinking of college age students who constitute the potential future work force. We need to know how they think for a number of reasons. Specifically, recruiters need to know how to recruit them and what misperceptions they need to correct from the start, the IC needs to know how to construct and shape careers they will find challenging for the long term, and the IC needs to consider how it will conduct the essential business of collection and analysis in a manner that is consistent with the current methodology, approach and attitude of this new generation. At same time, if there are major gaps in millennial’s understanding of the ethic of the Intelligence community, then it would be good for the IC to be alert to steps that would educate them as to the true history, legal grounding, values and principles of the community. With this in mind, this proposal involves conducting a survey of students or new IC employees composed of questions to determine the current attitude, knowledge, perceptions, and standard methodological approach of this group of applicants and employees.
Evaluating the Implementation of the National Strategy for Biosurveillance
(2015-05-20) Armstrong, Iain; Berry, Erin; Bitter, Alexander; Colburn, Leland; Karika, Kathleen; Paulino, Jose; Redden, Rebekah; Vien, Thomas "Tex"; Williams, Lodrick;
Biological incidents, both man-made and naturally occurring, represent a significant threat to the national security of the United States. Identifying these crises begins with the detection and reporting of essential biological disease information, known as biosurveillance. As the first of its kind, the 2012 National Strategy for Biosurveillance targets the process essential information should take to reach decisionmakers. Although there are points of strength in the system, extensive research finds the current biosurveillance infrastructure does not adequately transmit information to decisionmakers. Therefore, this report recommends three improvements to the biosurveillance system: increase incorporation of information, improve interagency relationships, and strengthen governance in the biosurveillance community.
Environmental Impacts of China Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Case Studies in Latin America, Mongolia, Myanmar, and Zambia
(2012) Al-Aameri, Nour; Fu, Lingxiao; Garcia, Nicole; Mak, Ryan; McGill, Caitlin; Reynolds, Amanda; Vinze, Lucas;
China’s rapid increase of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) over the past decade has garnered worldwide attention for a variety of reasons. Of particular concern is the concentration of Chinese OFDI in extractive industries, especially in developing countries. Generally, developing countries have fewer and weaker regulations than developed nations, exposing them to more severe environmental degradation. As the environmental consequences of such growth and investment become more visible, governments, companies, and communities pursue better environmental management and protection policies. Increasing environmental awareness and protection measures are evident in China’s 11th and 12th five-year plans, which suggests that domestically China is pursuing a more efficient and sustainable growth than in previous decades. China plans to implement policies to increase accountability and capacity to improve environmental protection. While challenges still exist, namely China’s growing demands for energy, such policies will provide a framework to advance environmental protection. China’s growing demand for and consumption of energy drives Chinese OFDI. The concentration of China’s investment in extractive industries leads to substantial environmental degradation. The majority of investment takes place through large state-owned enterprises. Despite improving its domestic environmental policies, China lacks any environmental regulation of OFDI. Though it promotes corporate social responsibility (CSR) and recently released legal guidelines for OFDI, such practices rely on the initiative of the investing company. The domestic policy environment interacts with the regulations of the recipient countries, resulting in differing environmental impacts. 3 An examination of several countries from varying regions illustrates how investments interact with recipient countries’ regulations. The increase of Chinese investment has affected the environment of South America, Mongolia, Myanmar and Zambia. Chinese investment in South America has allowed China to secure natural resources by increasing petroleum and mining production. Investment has impacted both small and established producers throughout the continent. South America, in particular Peru, shows how political development and improved financial markets can improve the regulatory environment, allowing FDI to benefit recipient countries. Most Chinese FDI entering Mongolia is in the mining sector to meet China’s growing demand for minerals. Investors in this sector include large Chinese state-owned mining enterprises that dominate Mongolia’s largest deposits, as well as small and medium Chinese mining firms in the artisanal mining industry. Unlike their larger counterparts, these small and medium mining firms do not employ environmentally friendly technology to extract minerals. Hence, Chinese artisanal mining has harmed Mongolia’s environment by generating excess surface water, waste rock piles, tailings, and mercury pollution, which causes air and water pollution. Inadequate law enforcement and local government corruption, coupled with the increasing influence of China, have made it difficult for Mongolia’s central government to address these environmental issues. In Myanmar, FDI in the nation’s hydropower, oil and gas and mining sectors has resulted in water pollution, destruction of fisheries, loss of biodiversity and deforestation. Chinese investors and firms from other countries, whose investments predate those of China, caused these environmental issues. They can also be attributed to Naypyitaw’s ineffective environmental governance, resulting from underdeveloped institutions and flouting the of its own environmental 4 laws. To improve environmental governance, Myanmar’s government must develop its institutions, devote more resources to environmental protection and promote environmental education. In Zambia, Chinese investments are concentrated heavily in the country’s copper mining industry. In Zambia, the country’s reliance on the mining sector results in air and water pollution of the surrounding areas. Though Chinese companies are by no means the largest investors or polluters in Zambia’s mining sector, the rapid increase of investments has made China particularly influential. The legislative and regulatory framework exists for environmental protection in Zambia, but the country lacks capacity for enforcement and accountability mechanisms. As such, several international mining companies have no incentive to comply with environmental regulations, worsening environmental degradation. To generate recommendations for improved environmental performance through sustainable outward foreign direct investment, we analyzed several viewpoints. Using the country report, we identified existing regulations and discovered areas where regulations or environmental awareness is lacking. One major observation from the country report is that China does not impose environmental regulations on outward foreign direct investment; instead, the government expects firms to comply with the regulations of the host countries. This raises an interesting question about whether home countries have an incentive to regulate environmentally sensitive areas. We surveyed theory and the existing literature on the pollution haven hypothesis to see if host countries avoid environmental regulations to encourage investment. Although the theory remains popular, robust evidence of the hypothesis does not exist. After completing the theoretical approach, we chose to apply country case studies to see if any developed countries have taken the lead in imposing environmental regulations. After 5 studying the U.S., Canada, and Europe, we found that environmental regulations for in-country development are common. However, like China, these countries do not actively regulate OFDI. In the absence of a global regulatory environment, a collaborative effort is needed. Through the research, we discovered a multi-tiered relationship, in which the home government, the host government, NGOs, and investors can all coordinate to improve environmental outcomes. After noting that the two-way tie between governments and investors is not always sufficient for regulations, we looked into alternative third parties that can affect environmental awareness. Through a literature review, we identified NGOs as powerful actors that can affect information availability, policy, operations, assessment and monitoring, and environmental advocacy. The combination of country analysis, theoretical framework building, case studies, and player identification allows us to formulate recommendations from the macro to the micro level. Specifically, we identified several broad categories where improvements can occur: with local communities and NGOs, with regulatory bodies, and with investors. Some recommendations apply to China’s environmental regulations; some apply to our four country regions; and others apply to investors and NGOs. TNC can help local communities and NGOs develop institutions, increase awareness, and build capacity to enhance management of environmental resources. By partnering with regulatory bodies, TNC can work to improve monitoring of environmental regulations through additional training and providing access to accurate information. Where investors are concerned, TNC and government actors can help improve banking practices and provide incentives to encourage environmental protection.
U.S. Strategic Options towards Iran: Understanding the U.S.–Iranian Relations through Iranian Domestic Politics
(2014) Abernathy, Jacob; Blanco, David; Kingsley, Marlee; Kramer, Michael; Lopacka, Karolina; Mauel, Heather; Peacock, Mike; Stotts, Katherine; Varela, Marques; Young, Krysten; ; Tabaar, Mohammad
The ongoing nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran have made greater progress on more substantial issues than any previous talks. This report argues that Iran’s unprecedented willingness to negotiate is strongly influenced by two factors: a united P5+1 and more importantly, a convergence of interests among Iran’s domestic factions. While there has long been knowledge of the challenges posed by Iran’s often-competing factions, no other study pinpoints them as a primary variable in the nuclear negotiations. Based on 50 interviews with high-level Iran experts and government officials and independent research, our study provides a unique framework for understanding the dynamics of Iranian domestic politics and its impact on the efficacy of U.S. policies. This study considers three scenarios the U.S. could encounter on July 20, 2014, when the current Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) expires: the P5+1 and Iran could sign a comprehensive deal; another interim deal could be reached; or negotiations could break down. The common thread throughout these recommendations is that the U.S. must find a way to capitalize on the factional convergence and avoid undermining it. The U.S. should always negotiate with Iran as a unitary actor, rather than favor certain factions; avoid measures that prompt one faction to undercut another faction; and understand that while not unique in having domestic competition, Iran’s political factions have a stronger effect on the success of negotiations than many have realized. If a comprehensive agreement is reached, we recommend pursuing limited engagement that seeks to broaden cooperation with Iran by working on issues that interest all Iranian factions, while also having deterrent threats in place should Iran renege. In the case of another interim deal, we recommend that the U.S. embrace balanced diplomacy, which increases the level of positive and negative inducements meant to persuade Iran to reach a comprehensive agreement. This recommendation, which mimics current U.S. policy, should focus solely on nuclear issues, unlike the first scenario. If nuclear negotiations break down, we recommend coercive diplomacy that involves gradual pressure, ranging from increased sanctions to authorizing the use of force. The challenge here is credibly threatening Iran without alienating the other P5+1 members or pushing Iran’s factions to unite against the United States. In all future negotiations, the U.S. should capitalize on Iranian domestic convergences and engage Iran as a whole.
CEFADES: An impact evaluation of a vocational and rehabilitation program for at-‐risk youth in Eastern DRC
(2013) Chen, Zike; Finnegan, Gavin; Hobson, David; Pinzon, Diego; Vander Hey, Gabriel; ; Gawande, Kishore
In the fall of 2013, a group of students at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University were approached to design and implement a survey to gauge the effectiveness of a youth employment program in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. At the fundamental level, it was necessary to know if the program was helping the children find employment and if that employment was increasing the incomes earned by participants. Vocational programs such as the one described in this paper, are not uncommon and have been shown to be quite effective in setting around the world. For the first time though, an analysis of this type of program was implemented in the unique setting of Butembo, DR Congo. Butembo, as will be described later, is a unique hub of peace within an area that has been ravaged by civil conflict in recent decades. In this particular context, the conflict affects youth in the area through displacement, loss of education, as well as through recruitment into the conflict or other activities that support rebel groups. The research within this paper uses survey instruments in an effort to determine the level of effectiveness of the vocational program in the region that focuses on at risk and vulnerable youth. In this paper, our research team will describe the setting of both conflict in DRC and its effects on institutions and programs as well as the setting of this analysis. In addition, information on the program, CEFADES, will be given along research design and the analysis of our findings.
Pipeline Politics: Natural Gas in Eurasia
(2010) Landrum, William W.; Llewellyn, Benjamin B.; Limesand, Craig M.; Miller, Dante J.; Morris, James P.; Nowell, Kathleen S.; Sherman, Charlotte L.; Marin Thornton, Gabriela; Popadiuk, Roman
Eurasia is a major source of oil and natural gas, and events in the region have a great potential to destabilize global security patterns. Supplies of natural gas and oil from Eurasia are vital for the functioning of European economies, and also important to US efforts to reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern energy resources. Presently, pipelines in Eurasia stretch across thousands of miles throughout unstable political regions. Disruptions in gas and oil supplies negatively affect the economies and politics of the region. Future pipeline projects – such as the Nabucco pipeline – are highly controversial, and Russia’s efforts to control oil and gas supplies in the region have recently intensified. Russia has gained increased influence in its neighborhood by consolidating control of regional energy production and infrastructure. This project claims that Russia is using its energy monopoly to further its geostrategic aims: ensuring political influence in nearby countries, obtaining a rise in commodity prices, and returning to multi-polarity in which Russia maintains clear regional hegemony. On the other hand, the US has four key interests in Eurasia. These include averting tensions with Russia, stabilizing the flow of oil and natural gas to Western Europe, maintaining US regional access for counterterrorism operations, and promoting democratic regimes to reduce Russian influence. In this light, the report argues that the US must promote development of pipelines that bypass Russian control and advance alternative domestic sources. These actions will ease European dependence on Russian energy, shield Europe from disruptions in supply, and decrease Russia’s ability to exert influence through energy policy. Other options include promoting a common European Union energy policy to increase influence in energy markets, push for increased gas storage across Europe to provide temporary relief against gas disruptions, and explore increased US and European cooperation with Russia on energy market access.
Lessons Learned from the 9/11 and WMD Commissions: IRTPA, CIA and the Intelligence Community
(2010) Childress, Kristin R.; Copley, Bethany M.; Davis, Drew B.C.; Hopp, Timothy D.; Miller, Melissa A.; Prendergast, Natalie J.; Potter, Amy J.; Rivera, Pablo J.; Sievert, Ronald J.
At the request of the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence, a team from the Bush School conducted an inquiry to determine how the CIA responded to the investigations of the 9/11 and WMD Commissions. The goal of the project, which involved interviews with several commissioners and numerous key staff members, was to identify what actions the D/CIA must take when confronted with future commissions to ensure that the most accurate picture of the Agency is presented, while preventing the formation of inaccurate negative impressions created by the manner in which Agency personnel interact with investigators. At the conclusion of the Capstone, the students prepared a report and orally briefed Agency supervisors on their findings and recommendations.
Estimating the Economic Costs of Espionage
(2010) Bell, Rich; Bennett, J. Ethan; Boles, Jillian R.; Goodoien, David M.; Irving, Jeff W.; Kuhlman, Phillip B.; White, Amanda K.; Engel, Jeffrey A.
Economic espionage is a serious threat to the vitality of the U.S. economy. While this is a widely accepted fact, there is no formal way to measure the damage an incident of economic espionage has on the U.S. economy. The U.S. government would like to know how damaging economic espionage is on the economy. However, the full repercussions of an incident of economic espionage are never known. A stolen trade secret, over the course of many years, could be used in different products and in different industries. The loss of a trade secret is an immeasurable value. Instead of attempting to measure such an overarching elusive concept, the research team sought to measure the potential consequence of economic espionage. In this study, the research team constructed a model to identify the severity of an incident of economic espionage and its consequences on the U.S. economy. The model was designed for use by federal government employees with the intent that the federal government could apply publically available case information to the model. The model provides a qualitative estimate of “consequence” as it relates to economic loss. The model generates a severity score between 0 and 1, which corresponds to a „low‟, „moderate‟, and „high‟ consequence. The severity score incorporates the model‟s four main variables into two primary components: „Industry‟ and „Case Variables‟. „Industry‟ assesses the significance of where the incident of economic espionage occurred. „Industry‟ is derived from a combination of the percentage of GDP in terms of value added for each of the 14 industries and the „susceptibility‟ of each of the 14 industries. This process enables the model to be individualized to a specific industry, which allows a different potential consequence to the U.S. economy. „Case Variables‟ assess the significance of the incident of economic espionage. „Case Variables‟ include the „Characteristics of the Theft‟, „Cost‟, and „Beneficiary‟ variables. The model requires the user to first select the „Industry‟ where the incident occurred and then to identify the „Case Variables‟. Therefore, the potential consequence on the U.S. economy from an incident of economic espionage is dependent on the industry. To greater individualize the model, the research team designed a method whereby questions within the model would matter more when compared to others. As no two incidents of economic espionage are identical, the research team developed a system of weighing the variables and their respective questions. With all the variables measured, standardized, and weighed against each other, the model calculates an overall severity score, which corresponds to the level of consequence for an incident of economic espionage.
The Impact of the US Climate Legislation on Trade with China
(2010) Acuña, Sarah; Akujuobi, Chris; Brigance, Nicholas; Kasper, Brian; Nearburg, Trevor; Gawande, Kishore
With the current public outrage at the environmental consequences of the oil spill in the Gulf, the president is likely to gain much needed support for his promotion of climate change legislation. A market driven switch to alternative and renewable energy will require a bill that puts a price on carbon and gives producers incentives to switch to and invest in cleaner, more efficient inputs and processes. Such a bill must meet two criteria. First, it must not harm the competitiveness of domestic producers relative to their foreign counterparts; and second, it must minimize emission leakage, thereby reducing global emissions levels. In this project for the US Department of Energy, we model the impacts of future US climate legislation. Policy scenarios are drawn from the precedence set by the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA), which the US Senate did not pass in 2010 but which serves as a blueprint for the future. The goal of the ACESA is to motivate US producers to reduce emissions in five manufacturing industries: Iron and Steel, Non-ferrous Metals, Non-metallic Minerals, Pulp and Paper, and Chemicals. Collectively, these sectors make up the most energy-intensive trade-exposed (EITE) sectors in the world. While the bill did not pass in its current form, future legislation will incorporate its three main policies: instituting a cap and trade system in the US, output-based rebates on allowance purchases, and an import tax on embodied emissions.

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