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Alamos Alliance XXIX Executive Summary
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2022-04-07) Navarro, Carlos I.
In this summary of the 29th edition of Alamos Alliance, participants and panelists addressed the issue of isolationist policies in response to the economic conditions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, high inflation, and Russiaâ€™s invasion of Ukraine. The main topics of discussion include the return of â€˜stagflationâ€™ and the perils of fiscal mismanagement; the supply chain â€˜mess,â€™ near-shoring and the future of open trade; and lost opportunities and radical uncertainty in Latin America. Speakers included Hernando de Soto (keynote), as well as Manuel Hinds, author of In Defense of Liberal Democracy, with a follow-up discussion led by Luis Rubio, Chairman of the Board of CIDAC-MÃ©xico EvalÃºa.
Alamos Alliance XXVII 2020 Executive Summary
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-03-05) Navarro, Carlos I.; Salinas-Leon, Roberto
Why are capital markets dysfunctional in an era of excessive liquidity, low interest rates and modest inflation? Why has the Chilean economic model, an inspiration to many other nations over many years, come under vicious attack? What is driving the turn to socialism among younger generations? These topics were tackled at the 27th meeting of the annual Alamos Alliance, â€œDisruption and Discontent in the Global Economy: Addressing the New Challenges,â€� held from February 13-16, 2020 in Alamos, Mexico. This report summarizes the the keynote presentations given by Professor Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College; Ricardo Hausmann, the Director of Harvard Universityâ€™s Growth Lab at the Center for International Development; as well as talks given by Anne Krueger, Deirdre McCloskey, Luis de la Calle and Kevin Murphy, among others.
Alamos Alliance XXVIII 2021 Executive Summary
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2021-05-19) Navarro, Carlos I.
The year 2020 and the Covid-19 pandemic abruptly shifted the manner in which people interact, save, spend, work, and carry out day-to-day business. The 28th meeting of the annual Alamos Alliance, which was held virtually on April 30, 2021, addressed the economics of the Covid-19 disruption, the recent rise of cryptocurrency, and fiscal and monetary policy responses to the pandemic. This report summarizes the presentations given by Vice President & Chief Economist of World Bank Group Carmen Reinhart, Professor Casey Mulligan, Robert Topel, Kevin Murphy, former Texas Senator Phil Gramm, Anne Krueger, and Manuel Suarez Mier. A discussion with Manuel Sanchez, Tom Saving, Pedro Aspe and Sebastain Edwards on cryptocurrencies and inflation followed.
Am I the Big Fish? The Effect of Self-Perceived Ordinal Rank on Student Academic Performance in Middle School
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2018-12-20) Yu, Han
In the educational setting, it is well known that relative achievement can affect individual outcomes. The ordinal academic rank of a student may affect the studentâ€™s academic achievement through a studentâ€™s self-confidence, parental expectations, effort provision, etc. In this paper, the author investigates the causal impact of the self-perceived ordinal rank of middle school students on their test scores in Mathematics, Chinese and English using a randomized sample from China. This paper provides the first direct evidence showing that middle school studentsâ€™ self-perceived ordinal rank has a positive and salient effect on their test scores in a later year in middle school. The results suggest that while students with a relatively better perceived academic performance benefit from perceiving a favorable relative position in study, students who believed that their ordinal rank is among the lowest in class suffer substantially more hurt with respect to future test scores. Moreover, the results suggest that perceiving a higher rank raises a studentâ€™s confidence in study and expectations on his/her own educational and occupational achievement in the future and more support from parents, teachers, and classmates in the present. Self-perceived rank also affects students' academic performance through effort provision and the quality of friends. The results also suggest a positive effect of female teachers on the self-perceived rank of female students.
Am I the Big Fish? The Effects of Ordinal Rank on Student Academic Performance in Middle School
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2019-06-28) Yu, Han
The idea that through perseverance and hard work, one can achieve his or her dreams is a pervasive one. There is already an established literature that studies the link between relative achievement and individual outcomes, but findings on relative achievement in the classroom is rare. This article summarizes working paper 1811, where PERC Postdoctoral Associate Han Yu provides the first evidence from a developing country by studying the effects of academic class rank for 7th and 8th grade students from China. This paper also breaks new ground by providing the first direct evidence on the relationship between objective academic class rank and the rank perceived by students, as well as the impact of self-perceived rank on a student's future academic attainments.
Analysis of the Biden Proposal to Equalize Saving Incentives
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-10-16) Jansen, Dennis W.; Liu, Liqun; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden has proposed replacing the current tax deductions on contributions to 401(k) retirement accounts with a uniform refundable tax credit that would be deposited into the taxpayerâ€™s retirement account as a matching contribution. The stated goal of the tax credit is to give lower income workers added incentives to save for retirement, as it would be more generous to them than the current deductions allowed to 401(k) accounts. In PERC Policy Study 2003, authors Dennis W. Jansen, Liqun Liu and Andrew J. Rettenmaier estimate different savings scenarios of both low and high income workers nearing retirement, and compare earnings derived using current 401(k) and Roth savings plans to the proposed uniform tax credit. The authors find that, if enacted, lower income workers would use the tax credit, while higher income workers would switch to Roth savings plans, resulting in less tax revenue for the federal government. The plan would also result in the unequal treatment of workers who participate in defined contribution plans relative to workers in defined benefit pension plans.
Are Charters the Best Alternative? A Cost Frontier Analysis
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2016-09-01) Gronberg, Timothy J.; Jansen, Dennis W.; Taylor, Lori L.
Texas has been part of the charter school movement since 1995, when the 74th Texas Legislature authorized the State Board of Education to establish open enrollment (OE) charter schools in the state. According to the Texas Education Agency, in 2010-11 there were 199 OE charter districts operating 482 campuses in Texas, serving 133,697 students, nearly 3% of public school students in the state. Despite the growing role of these alternative schools in the U.S. edcucational system, they are seldom studied. In Working Paper 1606, PERC Research Fellow Timothy J. Gronberg, PERC Jordan Professor Dennis W. Jansen, and Lori L. Taylor, provide the first careful empirical study of the costs of alternative education. Their results show charters to be more cost-efficient in providing alternative education compared to traditional public school districts
BCS Economy at the Start of 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-01-26) Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
This presentation, â€œState of the Local Economy at the Beginning of 2023,â€� covers topics from PERCâ€™s Economic Indicators report, including the Business-Cycle Index, nonfarm employment, unemployment, inflation-adjusted GDP, national and local air travel, and inflation.
Business Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic, Bryan-College Station Follow-up Survey Results
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-12-11) PERC Staff
This follow-up survey is the second of two surveys that includes responses from businesses in the Bryan-College Station area on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on operations and supply chain, workforce, and finance. The survey, created by staff at the Private Enterprise Research Center and distributed by the BCS Chamber, was conducted November 2-6, 2020. A total of 217 follow-up surveys were completed. The following report also compares responses from the initial survey, which was carried out June 8-16, 2020 and had 499 respondents.
Business Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic, Bryan-College Station Survey Results
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-07-15) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Navarro, Carlos I.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
This survey includes responses from businesses in the Bryan-College Station area on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on operations, employment, and financial situations. The survey, created by staff at the Private Enterprise Research Center and distributed by the BCS Chamber, was conducted June 8 through 16 and received responses from 499 individual businesses.
Can Cryptocurrencies Successfully Compete in the Money Market?
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2021-03-17) Saving, Thomas R.
The cryptocurrency revolution began with the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009. Today, there are now more than 4,000 cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin has a market capitalization of over $1 trillion. While these new digital entities are characterized as cryptocurrency, none actually circulate in day-to-day commerce. In policy study 2102, author Thomas R. Saving describes the necessary properties of money and compares them to cryptocurrency. As they are currently structured, cryptocurrencies are not going to compete in the privately produced money market but are better positioned to compete in the precious metals market.
Can Electricity Demand Help Us Monitor the Economy?
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2022-07-12) Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Kouchekinia, Noah
The recent pandemic has emphasized the importance of high-frequency economic variables. Electricity consumption, particularly important as a production input, is one such variable. However, electricity consumption typically exhibits marked seasonal fluctuations, which mask the fluctuations that are interesting from a business cycle perspective. In policy study 2202, PERC Professor Tatevik Sekhposyan and coauthor Noah Kouchekinia show that after capturing the seasonal effects associated with weather and calendar events, electricity consumption can provide a rapid reflection of the state of the economy. This may be particularly valuable for measuring regional economic activity, where official statistics are slower to arrive.
College Station-Bryan Economy Presentation, Updated 4/7/2022
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2022-04-11) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
The presentation includes information on: The January 2022 Business-Cycle Index and Business-Cycle for College Station-Bryan; College Station-Bryan unemployment rates dropped to 3.7% in February 2022 and was tied for the fourth-lowest rate among other Texas MSAs; Nonfarm employment data from the past fifteen years is reported for the College Station-Bryan MSA and was recently revised 3.6% higher than the previous December 2021 count; Texas state oil and gas production taxes are shown from September 2019 to March 2022; The volatility in both natural gas and oil production in Texas is shown from the beginning of 2019 through March 2022; A comparison of indexed nonfarm employment prior to and after the Bureau of Labor Statistics data revision for the U.S., Texas and select Texas MSAs from prior to the pandemic through February 2022; A comparison of employment by industry prior to and after the data revision from prior to the pandemic through February 2022; Inflation rates since 2010, including the Consumer Price Index, and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, as well as inflation expectations; Wages, real (inflation-adjusted) wages, and prices prior to the pandemic through February 2022.
Coronavirus and the Economy Presentation, Updated 7/16
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-07-16) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
This presentation focuses on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on College Station-Bryan and the state of Texas. The attached presentation includes information on: Updated national unemployment insurance claims for Texas and the Nation for the week ending on July 4, 2020; College Station-Bryan unemployment insurance claims from March 14, 2020 to June 27, 2020; Unemployment rates and indexed employment in select Texas metro areas; Vehicle miles driven relative to the first week of March; Information on airline travel, including TSA traveler throughputs and Easterwood Airport enplanements; Local Covid-19 positive cases per 1,000 population; State budget scenarios, as well as individual tax collections for June; International Monetary Fund GDP projections
Coronavirus and the Economy Presentation, Updated 8/27
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-08-27) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
This presentation includes information on: Â· The number of unemployment insurance claims in the U.S. and Texas for the week ending August 22, 2020 and August 15, 2020 for College Station-Bryan Â· June unemployment rates for College Station-Bryan, and July rates for Texas and the U.S. Â· A comparison of the June unemployment rates among Texas MSAs Â· 2020 Hotel receipts and inflation adjusted real taxable sales in College Station-Bryan for the first six months of 2020 compared to 2019 Â· The number of TSA travelers through August 16, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 Â· The January â€“ July enplanements out of Easterwood Airport for 2019 vs 2020 Â· The June College Station-Bryan Business-Cycle and Business-Cycle Index Â· The number of positive Covid-19 cases for Brazos County and Texas through August 26, 2020 Â· A forecast on Real GDP and Real Potential GDP from the Congressional Budget Office Â· Local Nonfarm employment through July 2020 Â· Employment by industry, indexed to 2009, along with gains from the end of the Great Recession compared to losses since the outset of the current recession Â· Updated state and local budget scenarios
Dropouts Need Not Apply? The Minimum Wage and Skill Upgrading
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2021-09-21) Meer, Jonathan; Kahn, Lisa; Clemens, Jeffrey
In the United States, politicians and the public alike have again sounded the call to raise the federal minimum wage, citing unlivable earnings and high consumer prices due to rising inflation, but would an increase actually benefit lower-skilled workers? In this summary of the working paper by Jonathan Meer, the Mary Julia and George R. Jordan, Jr. Professor of Public Policy, along with coauthors Lisa Kahn and Jeffrey Clemens, the authors explore whether minimum wage increases result in substitutions from lower-skilled to higher-skilled labor.
Federal Entitlement Spending
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2018-06-25) Liu, Liqun; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Saving, Thomas R.
Federal spending has hovered at around 20% of GDP for the past 50 years. Recent CBO reports forecast deficits averaging around 5% of GDP each year for the next 10 years, combined with rising federal spending continue to raise the federal debt to unprecedented peacetime levels. Today, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are the three main transfer programs â€“ accounting for almost 50% of all federal government outlays. In PERC Policy Study 1801, authors Liqun Liu, Andrew J. Rettenmaier and Thomas R. Saving compare federal spending over time, discuss the causes behind the rise in spending, and focus on transfer program reforms. The paper provides workable alternatives that constrain spending by adjusting the full retirement age and benefit formula of Social Security and Medicare, and also redefining the basis by which each state receives federal Medicaid contributions.
Federal Liabilities 2015 Update
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2015-07-01) Liu, Liqun; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Saving, Thomas R.
Federal Liabilities: 2016 Update
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2016-08-01) Liu, Liqun; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Saving, Thomas R.
The 2015 Financial Report of the United States Government (FRUSG) identifies total federal liabilities of $21.5 trillion as of September 30, 2015. The debt held by the public, $13.2 trillion, comprises 61% of these liabilities. Federal employees' accrued benefits make up another 31%, and various other categories round out the remainder. Absent from the official liabilities is a measure of current retirees' expected Social Security and Medicare benefits even though these elderly entitlement benefits are conceptually equivalent to federal employees' accrued benefits. The Social Security and Medicare benefits payable to retirees do appear in the FRSUG's Statements of Social Insurance, but not as liabilities. We suggest adding these portions of the elderly entitlement programs' obligations - net benefits payable to current retirees - to the official liabilities of the federal government. Social Security and Medicare benefits payable to current retirees produces an additional liability of $18.5 trillion, an amount that exceeds the debt held by the public and that is 86% of the size of the official liability measure. Together the official liabilities and the Social Security and Medicare benefits to be received by current retirees total $39.9 trillion, or 222% of GDP. The liability measure presented here, based on past actions, combined with the forward-looking fiscal gap and unfunded obligation measures provide policymakers with a comprehensive set of metrics that allows them to distinguish between federal government commitments that have already been made and those that are contingent on continuing programs in their current forms
Federal Liabilities: 2017 Update
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2017-06-01) Liu, Liqun; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Saving, Thomas R.
The official federal liabilities of the United States federal government totaled $22.8 trillion as of September 30, 2016. They include the debt held by the public of $14.2 trillion, federal employees; accrued retirement benefits of $7.2 trillion, and various other categories round out the remainder. Not included in the official liabilities is a measure of accrued Social Security and Medicare benefits expected by workers and retirees even though these benefits are conceptually equivalent to federal employees; accrued benefits. Accrued Social Security and Medicare benefits are not included as liabilities because workers and retirees do not have a legal claim to the receipt of these benefits. However, we suggest adding a subset of these accrued benefits to the official liabilities. Specifically, the portion of accrued benefits payable to retirees are likely to be paid in full and they meet the definition of liabilities in that they are based on prior actions that will require future resources. This subset of benefits payable to retirees appear each year in the Financial Report of the United States Government in the Statements of Social Insurance, but not as liabilities. Social Security and Medicare benefits payable to current retirees produce an additional liability of $19.8 trillion, an amount that exceeds the debt held by the public and that is 87% of the size of the official liability measure. Together the official liabilities and the Social Security and Medicare benefits to be received by current retirees total $42.6 trillion, or 229% of GDP. This liability measure, combined with the forward-looking fiscal gap and unfunded obligation measures, provide policymakers with a comprehensive set of metrics that distinguish between existing federal commitments based on past actions and those that are contingent on continuing the programs in their current forms.

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