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Now showing 1 - 20 of 21

Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, January 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-01-19) PERC Staff
The Business-Cycle Index decreased 0.1% from October 2022 to November 2022. The local unemployment rate increased to 3.2% in November 2022 compared to 3.1% in October 2022. November's local nonfarm employment increased by 0.2% from October. Local seasonally adjusted real (inflation-adjusted) taxable sales increased by 1% from October to November 2022. The 2021 annual real GDP measures for MSAs was just released by the federal government and indicates that College Station-Bryan’s inflation-adjusted GDP doubled over the two decades from 2001 to 2021, an annual growth rate of 3.7% over this period.
BCS Economy at the Start of 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-01-26) Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
This presentation, â€œState of the Local Economy at the Beginning of 2023,â€� covers topics from PERCâ€™s Economic Indicators report, including the Business-Cycle Index, nonfarm employment, unemployment, inflation-adjusted GDP, national and local air travel, and inflation.
The Signs of the Times
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-01-31) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
The past year, we experienced the highest inflation rates in forty years. Recession fears have been on the rise in recent months even as inflation rates have started to turn a corner. In this issue of PERCspectives on Policy, Dennis Jansen and Andrew Rettenmaier discuss past and present inflation rates, the recent increases in the Federal Funds Rate, and the relationship between past instances of an inverted yield curve and recessions. The year-over-year annual inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 6.4% in December and based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, inflation rate as of November was 5.5%. By either measure, the inflation rate is still well above the Fedâ€™s target of 2%. Yet, these mask an underlying pattern in the data, which shows higher monthly increases in the price level in the first half of that twelve month period, and lower monthly increases in the second half of the period. So, in recent months, inflation is much closer to the Fed's target. Still, slow growth in 2023 is anticipated by the Conference Board and the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee and the current inverted yield curve is also seen by the New York Federal Reserve Bank as signaling a possible recession on the horizon.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, February 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-02-16) PERC Staff
The Business-Cycle Index increased 0.8% from November 2022 to December 2022. The local unemployment rate decreased to 3.1% in December 2022 compared to 3.2% in November. Decemberâ€™s local nonfarm employment increased by 0.3% from November to December. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales were down by almost 1% from November to December. The inflation-adjusted median listing price per square foot for local housing increased 21% from January 2021 to December 2022.
Federal Liabilities: 2023 Update
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-03-07) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
The 2022 Financial Report of the United States Government identifies total federal liabilities of $39 trillion as of September 30, 2022. While the federal debt, interest payments and federal employeesâ€™ accrued benefits make up the bulk of total federal liabilities, current retireesâ€™ expected Social Security and Medicare are conspicuously absent. In PERC Policy Study 2301, Dennis Jansen and Andrew Rettenmaier argue for adding these portions of the elderly entitlement programsâ€™ obligations â€“ net benefits payable to current retirees â€“ to the official liabilities of the federal government. Social Security and Medicare benefits payable to current retirees produce additional liabilities of $32.2 trillion, an amount that exceeds the debt held by the public and that is 83% of the size of the official liability measure. The liability measure presented here â€“ based on past actions combined with the forward-looking fiscal gap and unfunded obligation measures - provide policymakers with the ability to distinguish between federal government commitments that have already been made and those that are contingent on continuing programs in their current forms.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, March 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-03-23) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index decreased 0.2% from December 2022 to January 2023. The local unemployment rate increased to 3.2% in January 2023 compared to 3.1% in December. In the March data release, Januaryâ€™s local nonfarm employment decreased by 0.2% from December 2022. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales were down by almost 1% from December 2022 to January 2023. Inflation-adjusted quarterly wages were up by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2022 from the previous quarter.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, April 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-04-20) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index decreased 0.3% from January 2023 to February 2023. The local unemployment rate increased to 3.3% in February 2023 compared to 3.2% in January. February's local nonfarm employment decreased by 0.1% from January 2023. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales were up by 1% from January 2023 to February 2023. Local nonfarm employment in February 2023 was 8.5% higher than in the pre-pandemic month of February 2020, compared to the statewide growth of 6.5% over that same period.
Poverty in the U.S.
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-05-02) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
In 1964, President Lyndon B. Johnson declared a â€˜war on poverty.â€™ Since then, the U.S. poverty rate declined from 19% to 11.6% in 2021, but one may wonder why it has not dropped further. In this issue of PERCspectives on Policy, Dennis Jansen and Andrew Rettenmaier examine how poverty thresholds in the U.S. were first established, the problems caused by leaving out transfer payments and tax credits, and the disadvantages of using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to annually update those thresholds. The authors also examine how those thresholds would change if based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Using the PCE price index, the poverty threshold for a family of four in 2021 would have been 23% lower than the current CPI-based threshold. The authors note that while taxes and all transfers have reduced income inequality and its growth relative to income before taxes and transfers, many of the programsâ€™ designs can actually reduce earned income.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, May 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-05-18) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index increased a slight 0.01% from February 2023 to March 2023. The local unemployment rate remained constant at 3.3% in March 2023 compared to its February value. Marchâ€™s local nonfarm employment decreased by 0.2% from February. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales were down by 0.3% from February 2023 to March 2023. State government employment, primarily Texas A&M University, typically declines about 13% between the spring and summer months each year.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, June 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-06-15) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index increased 0.84% from March to April 2023, the highest monthly gain since August 2022. The local unemployment rate remained at 3.3% in April 2023, the same as the March value. Apri's local nonfarm employment increased by 1.4% from March. April's inflation-adjusted taxable sales were up by 0.2% from March. Inflation-adjusted quarterly wages were down by 2% from the previous quarter. Through May 2023, inflation-adjusted tax revenues for the state of Texas are up 3.7% compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.
An Overview of the Economic Performance of Texas MSAs from 2010-2021
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-07-18) Jansen, Dennis W.; Kim, Joon Hwa
Questions about economic performance are some of the most frequently asked questions posed to economists. This paper illustrates the relative performance of states over 2010-2022 in terms of RGDP growth, population growth, and growth in per capita RGDP. The authors present information on trends in the performance of U.S. states over the recent 2010 - 2022 period, which followed the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. During this period, some states with high RGDP growth and high population growth, like Texas, also had moderate levels of per capita RGDP growth. Other states, such as California, had high RGDP growth but moderate population growth, and yet had very high per capita RGDP growth. Additionally, states with higher levels of RGDP per capita tend to grow more slowly than states with lower levels of RGDP per capita. This tendency toward convergence is a prediction of the Solow Growth Model.
Inflation and Real GDP Growth in the U.S.
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-07-18) Jansen, Dennis W.; Chang, Jui-Chuan Della; Pagliacci, Carolina
Here, authors Dennis Jansen, Jui-Chuan Della Chang, and Carolina Pagliacci look at the recent experience of the United States via the lens of sign restrictions to identify shocks to aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The authors use historical decompositions to create the components of real GDP growth, and inflation, that are due to the cumulation of the shocks to aggregate demand or aggregate supply. Findings show strong evidence that the experience of the U.S. during the Covid Recession and during the subsequent recovery as driven by both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. In particular, both aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks are responsible for the large increase in the U.S. inflation rate. Real GDP growth was largely driven by aggregate demand shocks, with aggregate supply shocks exerting a drag on output growth.
An Overview of the Economic Performance of States in the U.S. from 2010-2022
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-07-18) Jansen, Dennis W.; Kim, Joon Hwa
Questions about economic performance are some of the most frequently asked questions posed to economists. This paper illustrates the relative performance of states over 2010-2022 in terms of RGDP growth, population growth, and growth in per capita RGDP. The authors present information on trends in the performance of U.S. states over the recent 2010 - 2022 period, which followed the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. During this period, some states with high RGDP growth and high population growth, like Texas, also had moderate levels of per capita RGDP growth. Other states, such as California, had high RGDP growth but moderate population growth, and yet had very high per capita RGDP growth. Additionally, states with higher levels of RGDP per capita tend to grow more slowly than states with lower levels of RGDP per capita. This tendency toward convergence is a prediction of the Solow Growth Model.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, July 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-07-20) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index increased 0.5 index points, from 227.6 in April 2023 to 228.1 in May 2023. The local unemployment rate increased slightly, from 3.3% in April 2023 to 3.4% in May 2023. Local nonfarm employment increased by 0.3% from April to May. May’s inflation-adjusted taxable sales were down by 1.7% from April. The median sale price for single-family homes in Brazos County was down 2% from the previous three-month period.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy in the 21st Century
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-07-21) Saving, Thomas R.
In the 21st Century, the tools of monetary policy changed fundamentally with the onset of the Great Recession and the Covid-Pandemic, both of which led to significant asset expansions of the Federal Reserve to the tune of $3.5 trillion and $4.5 trillion, respectively. To prevent these unprecedented open-market purchases of securities from reaching the economy, the Federal Reserve began paying member banks interest on bank reserve balances and borrowing reserves from non-bank financial institutions at an overnight borrowing rate. These asset expansions resulted in almost record prices in financial markets so that the purchased assets had low yields. As market interest rates rose, the payments required to prevent banks and non-bank financial institutions from expanding the money supply and producing inflation exceeded Federal Reserve income. As a result, the Federal Reserve is losing $50 billion a month! The Federal Reserve is now trying to unwind the massive expansion and in the last year has reduced its securities holding by almost $900 billion. But we are still several years from the Federal Reserve returning to its asset holdings to its former share of GDP.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, August 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-08-17) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.
The Business-Cycle Index increased from 226 in May 2023 to 228 in June 2023. The local unemployment rate decreased from 3.4% in May 2023 to 3.3% in June 2023. Local nonfarm employment increased by 0.3% from May to June. Juneâ€™s inflation-adjusted taxable sales were down by 1.2% from May. By using a modified poverty measure that adjusts for college students, the poverty rate in Brazos County drops from 25% to 18%.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, September 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-09-21) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index increased from 228 in June 2023 to 229 in July. The local unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.3% in July 2023 compared to June. Local nonfarm employment decreased by 0.2% from June to July. Julyâ€™s inflation-adjusted taxable sales were up by 0.6% from June. Inflation-adjusted quarterly wage payments increased by 2% from its previous quarter. Oil natural gas tax revenue increased by 21% from February 2020 to August 2023.
The Covid-19 Federal Reserve
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-10-13) Saving, Thomas R.
At almost the onset of the effects of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve engaged in a massive asset expansion that was truly unprecedented. In just the first three months of the pandemic, March, April and May of 2020, the Federal Reserve bought $2.13 trillion in securities. Two years later, the money injection reached $4.76 trillion, almost 20% of 2022 GDP! What is more astounding is that unlike the Great Recession interventions, there were no undergoing financial crises that triggered this massive expansion. It has resulted in the end of the Federal Reserveâ€™s annual transfers to the U. S. Treasury that in 2022 equaled 30.5% of the net interest cost of the federal debt. Here, Thomas Saving examines the Federal Reserveâ€™s actions during both the Great Recession and the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the problems facing the Federal Reserve â€“ a catastrophe of its own making.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, October 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-10-19) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index increased from 229 in July 2023 to 230 in August. The local unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.3% in August 2023 compared to July. Local nonfarm employment increased by 0.2% from July to August. Augustâ€™s inflation-adjusted taxable sales were up by 0.3% from July. Texas A&M University 2023 Fall enrollment was 3.4% higher than in Fall 2022.
Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, November 2023
(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2023-11-16) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Sinha, Somali Ghosh
The Business-Cycle Index increased by a few decimal points in September and remained stable at 231 compared to the previous month. The local unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.3% in September 2023 compared to August. Local nonfarm employment decreased by 0.05% from August to September. Septemberâ€™s inflation-adjusted taxable sales were down by 2.3% from August. Cumulative Texas state tax revenues for fiscal year 2023 were $0.9 billion higher than in fiscal year 2022 at $83.7 billion.