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Browsing PERC Publications by Issue Date, starting with "2020"
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Item Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, January 2020(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-01-20) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Navarro, Carlos I.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.The College Station-Bryan Business-Cycle Index has been rebased to January 2001 starting with this month's edition of Economic Indicators. The value of the new index was 201 in November 2019, a 0.3% increase from October. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from its previous level of 2.7%. Nonfarm employment displayed a monthly increase of 0.6% in the month of November 2019 and is 3.6% higher than November 2018. Taxable sales decreased slightly in the month of November 2019 by 0.5% but were 6.4% higher than the same month in 2018. The focus section examines the local area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and compares College Station-Bryan (CSB) to other Texas localities.Item Taxing Wealth(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-01-29) Jansen, Dennis W.; Liu, Liqun; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.During this presidential primary season, several candidates have proposed a tax on the wealthy to fund platform promises. There is certainly appeal for a wealth tax, as these proposed taxes are seen as a tax on someone else - only the wealthiest Americans - and not the common taxpayer. In this edition of PERCspectives on Policy, authors Dennis W. Jansen, Liqun Liu, and Andrew J. Rettenmaier examine ways individuals will respond to a new wealth tax.Item Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, February 2020(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-02-24) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Navarro, Carlos I.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.The Business-Cycle Index decreased by 0.2% in the month of December 2019. The unemployment rate remained at the same level as the previous month, 2.7% in December 2019. Nonfarm employment decreased 0.2% in the month of December, but is up 3.4% from its level in December 2018. Taxable sales showed a decrease of 1% in December and are up 3.2% compared to the previous year. The focus section highlights the monthly revenues, number of rooms and average monthly revenues per room in the hotel industry in College Station-Bryan.Item Effects of Mandatory Energy Efficiency Disclosure in Housing Markets(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-02-25) Puller, Steven; Myers, Erica; West, JeremyPolicymakers are increasingly using mandated information disclosures as a way to increase market efficiency by providing information on quality to buyers. In the housing market in Austin, Texas, home sellers are required to perform a standardized energy audit and provide home efficiency information to prospective buyers. In working paper 1916, Steven Puller, PERC’s Professor of Free Enterprise, along with coauthors Erica Myers and Jeremy West investigate whether the audit and disclosure policies mandated by the City of Austin have the intended effect of improving the energy efficiency quality of homes. To read a summary of this working paper in the Winter 2020 issue of PERCspectives on Research, click on View or Download below.Item Tax Prices and Charitable Giving: Projected Changes in Donations Under the 2017 TCJA(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-02-25) Meer, Jonathan; Priday, Benjamin A.The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 made significant changes to the rate structure of the Internal Revenue Code of the United States, including the near-doubling of the standard deduction. Many taxpayers who normally itemize their tax returns and deduct the amount given to charitable institutions are expected to switch to using the standard deduction. In working paper 1917, PERC’s G.R. Jordan Professor Jonathan Meer, along with co-author Benjamin Priday, investigate the Act’s effects on charitable giving using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.Item Alamos Alliance XXVII 2020 Executive Summary(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-03-05) Navarro, Carlos I.; Salinas-Leon, RobertoWhy are capital markets dysfunctional in an era of excessive liquidity, low interest rates and modest inflation? Why has the Chilean economic model, an inspiration to many other nations over many years, come under vicious attack? What is driving the turn to socialism among younger generations? These topics were tackled at the 27th meeting of the annual Alamos Alliance, “Disruption and Discontent in the Global Economy: Addressing the New Challenges,� held from February 13-16, 2020 in Alamos, Mexico. This report summarizes the the keynote presentations given by Professor Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College; Ricardo Hausmann, the Director of Harvard University’s Growth Lab at the Center for International Development; as well as talks given by Anne Krueger, Deirdre McCloskey, Luis de la Calle and Kevin Murphy, among others.Item Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-03-10) Hoekstra, Mark; Sloan, CarlyWillWhile there is much concern about the role of race in police use of force, identifying causal effects is difficult. This is in part because of selection, and in part because researchers often observe only interactions that end in use of force, necessitating nontrivial benchmarking assumptions. This paper by Rex B. Grey Professor Mark Hoekstra and Graduate Student Fellow CarlyWill Sloan addresses these problems by using data on officers dispatched to over two million 911 calls in two cities. By using a location-by-time �xed effects approach that isolates the random variation in officer race, results show white officers use force 60 percent more on average than black officers, and use gun force twice as often. To examine how civilian race affects use of force, the authors compare how white officers increase use of force as they are dispatched to more minority neighborhoods, compared to minority officers. Perhaps most strikingly, findings show that while white and black officers use gun force at similar rates in white and racially mixed neighborhoods, white officers are �ve times as likely to use gun force in predominantly black neighborhoods. Similarly, white officers increase use of any force much more than minority officers when dispatched to more minority neighborhoods.Item Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-03-10) Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, BarbaraDoes the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage� in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to future information on the state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announcements via an“information channel?� This paper by PERC Professor Tatevik Sekhposyan, Lucas Hoesch, and Barbara Rossi investigates the evolution of the information channel over time. Although the information channel appears to be important historically, we find no empirical evidenceof its presence in the recent years once instabilities are accounted for.Item Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, March 2020(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-03-19) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Navarro, Carlos I.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.The Business-Cycle Index was basically flat between December 2019 and January 2020. The revised nonfarm employment rate was 0.4% higher in January 2020 and has increased 2.6% relative to the level in January 2019. Taxable sales were up 0.9% in January and up 5.6% since January 2019. Real wages in College Station-Bryan increased 1.3% from the second to the third quarter of 2019. The focus section provides a brief discussion of the Covid-19 outbreak with an emphasis on the local economy.Item A Presentation on the Coronavirus and the Economy(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-04-03) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.This presentation discusses the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on College Station-Bryan. The attached presentation includes information on: - The staggering number of initial unemployment claims nationally and in Texas for the week ending March 28. - Estimates for the local unemployment rate under alternate scenarios for employment in the Leisure and Hospitality industries. - The impact of falling oil prices for state and local area GDP, and for state revenuesItem Money and Banking When Reserves Pay Interest(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-04-09) Saving, Thomas R.The Federal Reserve’s decision in 2008 to begin paying interest on bank reserves, particularly excess reserves (the IOER), has changed the role of the banking system and the determination of the nation’s money supply. Paying interest on bank reserves essentially turned these reserves into investment opportunities for banks, making banks active players in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions. In policy study 2001, Thomas Saving explores the current tools used by the Federal Reserve to control the money supply and the new role banks play in determining monetary policy actions.Item Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, April 2020(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-04-17) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Navarro, Carlos I.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.Data on initial unemployment claims indicate that Texas lost almost 8% of its nonfarm employment in the last four weeks. Nationally, the 22 million in new unemployment claims in the last four weeks is equivalent to 14.5% of the country’s nonfarm employment. The price of oil has fallen in the past month by well over 50%, and approved drilling permits in Texas fell by 18.5% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019. Highway traffic in Texas in March steadily decreased relative to the last week of February. Air travel out of Easterwood Airport was down 43% in March 2020 compared to March 2019. The unemployment rate remained at 2.7% in College Station-Bryan for the month of February, the latest available data point, but that was before the shelter-in-place orders went into effect. The local unemployment rate — as well as the state and the national unemployment rate — is expected to rise in March, and to rise precipitously in April. The Business Cycle-Index remained virtually unchanged from its revised January level, experiencing a very slight increase in the month of February. But again, this was measured prior to the March shelter-in-place orders and restrictions on business operations.Item State Dependence of Monetary Policy Across Business, Credit and Interest Rate Cycles(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-04-28) Alpanda, Sami; Granziera, Eleonora; Zubairy, SarahIn this paper, PERC Professor Sarah Zubairy, along with co-authors Sami Alpanda and Eleonora Granziera study how phases of the business, credit and interest rate cycles affect the transmission of monetary policy using state-dependent local projection methods and data from 18 advanced economies. Findings show that the impact of monetary policy shocks on output and other macroeco-nomic and �nancial variables is weaker during periods of economic downturns, high household debt, and high interest rates. The authors then build a small-scale theoretical model that points to the presence of collateral and debt-service constraints on household borrowing and re�nancing as potential drivers of state dependence of monetary policy with respect to the business, credit, and interest rate cycles. These �ndings bear signi�cant implications for the transmission of monetary policy and highlight potentially important features to be considered in models used to inform monetary policy decisions.Item Updated: A Presentation on the Coronavirus and The Economy(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-04-28) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.This presentation focuses on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on College Station-Bryan and the state of Texas. The attached presentation includes information on: · Updated national Unemployment Insurance claims and the number of claims for Texas for the week ending April 18, 2020; · Texas industries with the highest number of unemployment insurance claims; · Nonfarm employment UI Claims mapped by Texas metro area; · Actual versus predicted energy use by week for a selection of states, regions of the U.S., and Texas; · Information on household net worth by wealth percentile over the past three decades; · How low oil prices factor into local wages, GDP, nonfarm employment and tax collectionsItem Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-04-30) Hoekstra, Mark; Sloan, CarlyWillWhat role does race have in cases of police use of force? This issue of PERCspectives on Research summarizes the paper by Rex B. Grey Professor Mark Hoekstra and Graduate Student Fellow CarlyWill Sloan, which examines how the race of officers and the race of civilians affect police use of force by using a location-by-time �xed effects approach to randomize the race of officers dispatched to over two million 911 calls in two cities. Results show white officers use force 60 percent more on average than black officers, and use gun force twice as often. Findings also show that while white and black officers use gun force at similar rates in white and racially mixed neighborhoods, white officers are �ve times as likely to use gun force in predominantly black neighborhoods. Similarly, white officers increase use of any force much more than minority officers when dispatched to more minority neighborhoodsItem Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-04-30) Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Hoesch, Luka; Rossi, BarbaraDoes the Federal Reserve have an “information advantage� in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to future information on the state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announcements via an“information channel?� This issue of PERCspectives on Research discusses the paper by PERC Professor Tatevik Sekhposyan, Lucas Hoesch, and Barbara Rossi, which investigates the evolution of the information channel over time. Although the information channel appears to be important historically, we find no empirical evidenceof its presence in the recent years once instabilities are accounted for.Item Energy and the Economy(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-05-06) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.With many of the most timely measures of economic activity lagging behind the fast moving changes in the U.S. economy, one source of extremely timely data is energy use. Energy use is not only tied to the weather as we heat and cool our homes; it is also tied to economic output as firms power their production facilities and establishments open for business and provide services. In this issue of PERCspectives on Policy, authors Dennis W. Jansen and Andrew J. Rettenmaier estimate the degree to which energy demand has changed from January 2017 to March 15, 2020, while taking into account the various dates that stay-at-home orders went into effect. By using data from the Energy Information Administration and controlling for weather conditions, the authors compare the actual and predicted use of energy, present the percent deviation between actual and predicted energy use, and show the decline in energy use relative to the insured unemployment rate for selected states and regions in the U.S. Results indicate that energy use has dropped markedly relative to expected use since the stay-at-home orders have been in place.Item The Failed Federal Reserve Attempt to Get Back to the Past(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-05-21) Saving, Thomas R.The end result of the Federal Reserve’s response to the 2008 financial and the Great Recession was an unprecedented increase in assets. Between 2008 and 2014, Federal Reserve assets rose from just under $900 billion to over $4.5 trillion, more than 500%. This asset increase was expected to dramatically increase inflation, but did not due to the introduction of paying interest on bank reserves. In policy study 2002, author Thomas R. Saving shows the Federal Reserve’s rise in assets and the outcomes of its decision to return to their historic level as a share of GDP.Item Economic Indicators of the College Station-Bryan MSA, May 2020(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-05-21) Bullock, Ashley; Jansen, Dennis W.; Navarro, Carlos I.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.Data on initial unemployment claims indicate almost 2 million workers in Texas have filed claims over the last 8 weeks. Nationally, 36.5 million new unemployment claims have been filed over the same time period. The price of oil has fallen in the past month by well over 50%, and approved drilling permits in Texas fell by 40% from March to April 2020. Highway traffic in Texas steadily decreased during March through the first half of April relative to the last week of February, but has been rising. Air travel out of Easterwood Airport was down 96% in April 2020 compared to March 2019, similar to the national decline in air travel. The unemployment rate increased to 3.8% in College Station-Bryan for the month of March, the first unemployment data point capturing the effects of the shelter-in-place orders. The national unemployment rate in April was 14.7%, up from 4.4% in March. The Business Cycle-Index exhibited a sharp decrease of 2.2% for the month of March.Item Updated 5/28: A Presentation on the Coronavirus and The Economy(Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, 2020-05-28) Jansen, Dennis W.; Rettenmaier, Andrew J.This presentation focuses on the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on College Station-Bryan and the state of Texas. The attached presentation includes information on: Updated Unemployment Insurance claims in the United States and Texas for the week ending May 23, and for College Station-Bryan for the week ending May 16, 2020; The top 25 Texas industries with the highest number of unemployment insurance claims; The unemployment rate for Texas, the U.S., and College Station-Bryan; The unemployment rate for men and women nationally and locally; TSA and Easterwood airport throughputs and enplanements; Actual versus predicted energy use by week for a selection of states, regions of the U.S., and Texas; Budget implications locally and for the state of Texas; Information on GDP and the dramatic increase in the national debt
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