Browsing by Author "Worqlul, Abeyou W."
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Item Advances in water resources research in the Upper Blue Nile basin and the way forward: A review(Journal of Hydrology, 2018) Dile, Yihun Taddele; Tekleab, Sirak; Ayana, Essayas K.; Gebrehiwot, Solomon G.; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Bayabil, Haimanote K.; Yimam, Yohannes T.; Tilahun, Seifu A.; Daggupati, Prasad; Karlberg, Louise; Srinivasan, Raghavan; ElsevierThe Upper Blue Nile basin is considered as the lifeline for ∼250 million people and contributes ∼50 Gm3/year of water to the Nile River. Poor land management practices in the Ethiopian highlands have caused a significant amount of soil erosion, thereby threatening the productivity of the Ethiopian agricultural system, degrading the health of the aquatic ecosystem, and shortening the life of downstream reservoirs. The Upper Blue Nile basin, because of limited research and availability of data, has been considered as the “great unknown.” In the recent past, however, more research has been published. Nonetheless, there is no state-of-the-art review that presents research achievements, gaps and future directions. Hence, this paper aims to bridge this gap by reviewing the advances in water resources research in the basin while highlighting research needs and future directions. We report that there have been several research projects that try to understand the biogeochemical processes by collecting information on runoff, groundwater recharge, sediment transport, and tracers. Different types of hydrological models have been applied. Most of the earlier research used simple conceptual and statistical approaches for trend analysis and water balance estimations, mainly using rainfall and evapotranspiration data. More recent research has been using advanced semi-physically/physically based distributed hydrological models using high-resolution temporal and spatial data for diverse applications. We identified several research gaps and provided recommendations to address them. While we have witnessed advances in water resources research in the basin, we also foresee opportunities for further advancement. Incorporating the research findings into policy and practice will significantly benefit the development and transformation agenda of the Ethiopian government.Item Assessing Irrigation Potential and Land Suitability in Ethiopia(Texas A&M AgriLife Research, [2019?]) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Osorio, Javier; Jeong, Jaehak; Gerik, Thomas; Dile, Yihun T.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Clark, Neville; Norman Borlaug Institute for International Agriculture, TAMU, IDSS, ILSSIItem Assessing potential land suitable for surface irrigation using groundwater in Ethiopia(Applied Geography, 2017) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Jeong, Jaehak; Dile, Yihun T.; Osorio, Javier; Schmitter, Petra; Gerik, Thomas; Srinivasan, R.; Clark, Neville; ElsevierAlthough Ethiopia has abundant land for irrigation, only a fraction of its potential land is being utilized.This study evaluates suitability of lands for irrigation using groundwater in Ethiopia using GIS-basedMulti-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques in order to enhance the country's agricultural industry.Key factors that significantly affect irrigation suitability evaluated in this study include physical landfeatures (land use, soil, and slope), climate (rainfall and evapotranspiration), and market access (proximity to roads and access to market). These factors were weighted using a pair-wise comparison matrix,then reclassified and overlaid to identify suitable areas for groundwater irrigation using a 1-km grid.Groundwater data from the British Geological Survey were used to estimate the groundwater potential,which indicates the corresponding irrigation potential for major crops. Results indicated that more than6 million ha of land are suitable for irrigation in Ethiopia. A large portion of the irrigable land is located inthe Abbay, Rift Valley, Omo Ghibe, and Awash River basins. These basins have access to shallowgroundwater (i.e., depth of groundwater less than 20 m from the surface) making it easier to extract. Thecomparison between available groundwater and total crop water requirements indicate that groundwater alone may not be sufficient to supply all suitable land. The study estimates that only 8% of thesuitable land can be irrigated with the available shallow groundwater. However, groundwater is a viableoption for supplementing surface water resources for irrigation in several basins in the countryItem Assessment of Suitable Areas for Home Gardens for Irrigation Potential, Water Availability, and Water-Lifting Technologies(Water, 2018) Assefa, Tewodros; Jha, Manoj; Reyes, Manuel; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; MDPIThe study was conducted in Lake Tana Basin of Ethiopia to assess potentially irrigable areas for home gardens, water availability, and feasibility of water-lifting technologies. A GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) technique was applied to access the potential of surface and groundwater sources for irrigation. The factors affecting irrigation practice were identified and feasibility of water-lifting technologies was evaluated. Pairwise method and expert’s opinion were used to assign weights for each factor. The result showed that about 345,000 ha and 135,000 ha of land were found suitable for irrigation from the surface and groundwater sources, respectively. The rivers could address about 1–1.2% of the irrigable land during dry season without water storage structure whereas groundwater could address about 2.2–2.4% of the irrigable land, both using conventional irrigation techniques. If the seven major dams within the basin were considered, surface water potential would be increased and satisfy about 21% of the irrigable land. If rainwater harvesting techniques were used, about 76% of the basin would be suitable for irrigation. The potential of surface and groundwater was evaluated with respect to water requirements of dominant crops in the region. On the other hand, rope pump and deep well piston hand pump were found with relatively the most (26%) and the least (9%) applicable low-cost water-lifting technologies in the basin.Item Conservation Agriculture Saves Irrigation Water in the Dry Monsoon Phase in the Ethiopian Highlands(Water, 2019) Belay, Sisay A.; Schmitter, Petra; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; Reyes, Manuel R.; Tilahun, Seifu A.; MDPIWater resources in sub-Saharan Africa are more overstressed than in many other regions of the world. Experiments on commercial farms have shown that conservation agriculture (CA) can save water and improve the soil. Nevertheless, its benefits on smallholder irrigated farms have not been adequately investigated, particularly in dry monsoon phase in the Ethiopian highlands. We investigated the effect of conservation agriculture (grass mulch cover and no-tillage) on water-saving on smallholder farms in the Ethiopian highlands. Irrigated onion and garlic were grown on local farms. Two main factors were considered: the first factor was conservation agriculture versus conventional tillage, and the second factor was irrigation scheduling using reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus irrigation scheduling managed by farmers. Results showed that for both onion and garlic, the yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) was over 40% greater for CA than conventional tillage (CT). The soil moisture after irrigation was higher in CA compared with CT treatment while CA used 49 mm less irrigation water. In addition, we found that ETo-based irrigation was superior to the farmers’ irrigation practices for both crops. IWUE was lower in farmers irrigation practices due to lower onion and garlic yield responses to overirrigation and greater water application variability.Item Conservation agriculture with drip irrigation: Effects on soil quality and crop yield in sub-Saharan Africa(Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020) Assefa, Tewodros; Jha, Manoj; Reyes, Manuel; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Doro, L.; Tilahun, S.; MDPIThe traditional agriculture production system in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) caused significant soil erosion and degradation of soil quality. In addition, dependability of rainfall for irrigation needs limits the crop production. Advanced agricultural practices are thus needed at the local level to sustain the livelihood of smallholder farmers in the region. In this study, conservation agriculture (CA) practice with drip irrigation technology was compared (using field experiments and watershed modeling) with the traditional conventional tillage (CT) practice for its potential in improving soil quality and crop productivity in the region. Biophysical data were collected (2015 to 2017) from a total of 43 paired plots (CA and CT) at four study sites in SSA: Dangishita and Robit in Ethiopia, Yemu in Ghana, and Mkindo in Tanzania. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model was calibrated and validated with reasonable efficiency in simulating crop yields for both CA and CT practices; average PBIAS ≤±12% and ≤±11%, for CA and CT. The impact of the CA system on soil quality (soil carbon [C] and nitrogen [N]) was analyzed based on the well-tested model prediction results. The total C and N were increased under CA across the study sites on average by 6% and 4.1%, when compared to CT over the study period. Both the experiment and model prediction showed that crop yield was significantly improved by CA—on average 37.4% increases across the sites when compared to CT. Conservation agriculture with drip irrigation was an efficient local strategy to improve crop production in the region while enhancing the ecosystemItem Economic and Nutrition Impacts of Irrigated fodder and Crossbreed Cows on Households in Lemo woreda, SNNP region of Ethiopia(Agricultural & Applied Economics Association, 2020) Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Derseh, Melkamu; Richardson, James W.; Bryant, Henry; Herbst, Brian K.; Lefore, Nicole; Clarke, Neville P.; Dile, Yihun T.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Adie, AberraEconomic and Nutrition Impacts of Irrigated fodder and Crossbreed CowsItem Effect of climate change on land suitability for surface irrigation and irrigation potential of the shallow groundwater in Ghana(Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2019) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Dile, Yihun T.; Jeong, Jaehak; Adimassu, Zenebe; Lefore, Nicole; Gerik, Thomas; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Clarke, Neville; ElsevierEstimating the potential land resources suitable for irrigation and evaluating the possible impact of climate change on land suitability is essential for planning a sustainable agricultural system. This study applied a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) technique to evaluate the suitability of land for irrigation in Ghana for a baseline period (1990 to 2010) and future time horizons 2050s (2041 to 2060) and 2070s (2061 to 2080). Key factors considered to evaluate the suitability of the land for irrigation include biophysical features (such as climate, land use, soil, and slope) and socioeconomic factors (such as proximity to roads and population density). These factors were weighted using a pairwise comparison matrix then reclassified and overlaid on a 30 m grid to estimate the irrigation potential of the country. Groundwater data from the British Geological Survey (BGS) were superimposed onto the land suitability map layer to evaluate the irrigation potential and the accessibility of shallow groundwater with simple water lifting technologies. Downscaled and bias-corrected future climate data from HadGEM2-ES under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario were used to represent the future climate horizon. Due to climate change, on average, rainfall will increase by 15 mm and 20 mm from the baseline period in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The average temperature shows a consistent increase in the majority of Ghana and a higher rate of increase is expected in the 2070s. Consequently, the rising temperature will increase the potential evapotranspiration by 6.0% and 7.6% in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The suitability analysis indicates that approximately 9% of the country is suitable for surface irrigation under the baseline period. A large portion of the potential land is located in the southwestern part of the country. The potential suitable land has an average groundwater access of 12 m from the surface with an average borehole potential yield of 2.5 L/second, which makes it favorable for utilization of simple water lifting technologies. Due to climate change, 9.5% of the suitable land will become unfavorable for irrigation in 2050s, and it is expected to reach 17% in 2070s.Item Evaluating hydrologic responses to soil characteristics using SWAT model in a paired-watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile Basin(CATENA, 2018) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Yen, Haw; Jeong, Jaehak; MacAlister, Charlotte; Taylor, Robin; Gerik, Thomas J.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; ElsevierWatershed responses are affected by the watershed characteristics and rainfall events. The characteristics of soil layers are among the fundamental characteristics of a watershed and they are input to hydrologic modeling similar to topography and land use/cover. Although the roles of soils have been perceived, there are limited studies that quantify the role of soil characteristics on watershed runoff responses due to the lack of field datasets. Using two adjacent watersheds (Ribb and Gumara) which have a significant different runoff response with a similar characterstics except geological settings (including soil characteristics), we studied the effects of soil characteristics on runoff and water balance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the surface runoff response at the outlet of the watershed and the optimal model parameters distribution was tested with a non-parametric test for similarity. Results indicated that SWAT model captured the observed flow very well with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of greater than 0.74 and with a PBIAS of less than 10% for both calibration and validation period. The comparison of the optimal model parameter distributions of the SWAT model showed that the watershed characteristics could be uniquely defined and represented by a hydrologic model due to the differences in the soils. Using field observations and modeling experiments, this study demonstrates how sensitive watershed hydrology is to soils, emphasizing the importance of accurate soil information in hydrological modeling. We conclude that due emphasis should be given to soil information in hydrologic analysis.Item Evaluation and prediction of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia(Environmental Systems Research, 2017) Gashaw, Temesgen; Tulu, Taffa; Argaw, Mekuria; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; SpringerBackgroundLand use/land cover (LU/LC) change is the challenging and continuous drivers of environment change. Understanding the rate and process of change is, therefore, basic for managing the environment. This study was intended to analyze the LU/LC changes from 1985 to 2015 periods, and predict the situation to 2030 and 2045 in the Andassa watershed of Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The hybrid classification technique for extracting thematic information from satellite images and CA-Markov model for prediction of LU/LC were employed.ResultsCultivated land was expanding from 62.7% in 1985 to 73.1% in 2000 and to 76.8% in 2015. The area of built-up also slightly increased (0.1–1.1%) between 1985 and 2015 periods. In contrast, forest, shrubland and grassland were reduced from 3.5 to 1.9%, 26.2 to 15.3% and 7.6 to 4.9% in 1985 and 2015 periods, respectively. The increase of cultivated land and built-up area, and the withdrawing of forest, shrubland and grassland were further continued in 2030 and 2045 periods.ConclusionSignificant amount of LU/LC conversions had occurred in the watershed from 1985 to 2015 periods, and expected to continue in 2030 and 2045 periods. Thus, appropriate interventions to revert the trends are very much critical.Item Evaluation of CFSR, TMPA 3B42 and ground-based rainfall data as input for hydrological models, in data-scarce regions: The upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia(CATENA, 2017) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Yen, Haw; Collick, Amy S.; Tilahun, Seifu A.; Langan, Simon; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; ElsevierAccurate prediction of hydrological models requires accurate spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. In developing countries, the network of observation stations for rainfall is sparse and unevenly distributed. Satellite-based products have the potential to overcome this shortcoming. The objective of this study is to compare the advantages and the limitation of commonly used high-resolution satellite rainfall products (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7) as input to hydrological models as compared to sparsely and densely populated network of rain gauges. We used two (semi-distributed) hydrological models that performed well in the Ethiopian highlands: Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED). The rainfall products were tested in two watersheds: Gilgel Abay with a relatively dense network of rain gauge stations and Main Beles with a relatively scarce network, both are located in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The results indicated that TMPA 3B42 was not be able to capture the gauged rainfall temporal variation in both watersheds and was not tested further. CFSR over predicted the rainfall pattern slightly. Both the gauged and the CFSR reanalysis data were able to reproduce the streamflow well for both models and both watershed when calibrated separately to the discharge data. Using the calibrated model parameters of gauged rainfall dataset together with the CFSR rainfall, the stream discharge for the Gilgel Abay was reproduced well but the discharge of the Main Beles was captured poorly partly because of the poor accuracy of the gauged rainfall dataset with none of the rainfall stations located inside the watershed. HBV model performed slightly better than the PED model, but the parameter values of the PED could be identified with the features of the landscape.Item Ex Ante Analysis of Small-Scale Irrigation Interventions in Bihinaayili(Feed the Future, [2016?]) Bizmana, Jean-Claude; Clarke, Neville P.; Dile, Yihun T.; Gerik, Thomas J.; Jeong, Jaehak; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Richardson, James W.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; USAID; The Borlaug Institute; Texas A&M AgriLife Research; Texas A&M University System; IFPRI; IWMI; ILRI; North Carolina A&T State UniversityItem Experimental Evaluation of Conservation Agriculture with Drip Irrigation for Water Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa(Water, 2019) Assefa, Tewodros; Jha, Manoj; Reyes, Manuel; Tilahun, Seifu; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; MDPIA field-scale experimental study was conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia and Ghana) to examine the effects of conservation agriculture (CA) with drip irrigation system on water productivity in vegetable home gardens. CA here refers to minimum soil disturbance (no-till), year-round organic mulch cover, and diverse cropping in the rotation. A total of 28 farmers (13 farmers in Ethiopia and 15 farmers in Ghana) participated in this experiment. The experimental setup was a paired ‘t’ design on a 100 m2 plot; where half of the plot was assigned to CA and the other half to conventional tillage (CT), both under drip irrigation system. Irrigation water use and crop yield were monitored for three seasons in Ethiopia and one season in Ghana for vegetable production including garlic, onion, cabbage, tomato, and sweet potato. Irrigation water use was substantially lower under CA, 18% to 45.6%, with a substantial increase in crop yields, 9% to about two-fold, when compared with CT practice for the various vegetables. Crop yields and irrigation water uses were combined into one metric, water productivity, for the statistical analysis on the effect of CA with drip irrigation system. One-tailed paired ‘t’ test statistical analysis was used to examine if the mean water productivity in CA is higher than that of CT. Water productivity was found to be significantly improved (α = 0.05) under the CA practice; 100%, 120%, 222%, 33%, and 49% for garlic, onion, tomato, cabbage, and sweet potato respectively. This could be due to the improvement of soil quality and structure due to CA practice, adding nutrients to the soil and sticking soil particles together (increase soil aggregates). Irrigation water productivity for tomato under CA (5.17 kg m−3 in CA as compared to 1.61 kg m−3 in CT) is found to be highest when compared to water productivity for the other vegetables. The mulch cover provided protection for the tomatoes from direct contact with the soil and minimized the chances of soil-borne diseases. Adapting to CA practices with drip irrigation in vegetable home gardens is, therefore, a feasible strategy to improve water use efficiency, and to intensify crop yield, which directly contributes towards the sustainability of livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the region.Item Modeling the Impacts of Conservation Agriculture with a Drip Irrigation System on the Hydrology and Water Management in Sub-Saharan Africa(MDPI, 2018) Assefa, Tewodros; Jha, Manoj; Reyes, Manuel; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; SustainabilityThe agricultural system in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is dominated by traditional farming practices with poor soil and water management, which contributes to soil degradation and low crop productivity. This study integrated field experiments and a field-scale biophysical model (Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender, APEX) to investigate the impacts of conservation agriculture (CA) with a drip irrigation system on the hydrology and water management as compared to the conventional tillage (CT) practice. Field data were collected from four study sites; Dangishita and Robit (Ethiopia), Yemu (Ghana), and Mkindo (Tanzania) to validate APEX for hydrology and crop yield simulation. Each study site consisted of 100 m2 plots divided equally between CA and CT practices and both had a drip irrigation setup. Cropping pattern, management practices, and irrigation scheduling were monitored for each experimental plot. Significant water savings (α = 0.05) were observed under CA practice; evapotranspiration and runoff were reduced by up to 49% and 62%, respectively, whereas percolation increased up to three-fold. Consequently, irrigation water need was reduced in CA plots by about 14–35% for various crops. CA coupled with drip irrigation was found to be an efficient water saving technology and has substantial potential to sustain and intensify crop production in the regionItem Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Simulated Small-Scale Irrigation Intervention: A Case Study in Dimbasinia Watershed, Ghana(Sustainability, 2018) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Dile, Yihun T.; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Jeong, Jaehak; Gerik, Thomas J.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Richardson, James W.; Clarke, Neville; MDPIThis paper studied the impacts of small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions on environmental sustainability, agricultural production, and socio-economics using an Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS). The IDSS is comprised of a suite of models, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX), and Farm Income and Nutrition Simulator (FARMSIM). The IDSS was applied in Dimbasinia watershed in northern Ghana using irrigation water from shallow groundwater. The watershed has a modest amount of shallow groundwater resources. However, the average annual irrigation water requirement exceeded the average annual shallow groundwater recharge. It was found that the current crop yield in Dimbasinia watershed was only ~40% of the potential crop production. This is mainly related to climate variability, low soil fertility, and land-management practices. For example, application of 50 kg/ha urea and 50 kg/ha DAP doubled maize and sorghum yield from the current farmers’ practices. Better income was obtained when irrigated vegetables/fodder were cultivated in rotation with sorghum as compared to in rotation with maize. Investment in solar pumps paid better dividends and also supplied clean energy. The socio-economic analysis indicated that having irrigated dry season vegetables will improve household nutrition. Since shallow groundwater recharge alone may not provide sufficient water for irrigation in a sustainable manner, surface water may be stored using water-harvesting structures to supplement the groundwater for irrigation. Integrated use of the water resources will also reduce depletion of the shallow groundwater aquifer. We conclude that IDSS is a promising tool to study gaps and constraints as well as upscaling of SSI.Item Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia(Journal of Hydrology,, 2018) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H.P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; ElsevierIn many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate–Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.Item Potential of Water Hyacinth Infestation on Lake Tana, Ethiopia: A Prediction Using a GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Technique(Water, 2019) Dersseh, Minychl G.; Kibret, Aron A.; Tilahun, Seifu A.; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Moges, Mamaru A.; Dagnew, Dessalegn C.; Abebe, Wubneh B.; Melesse, Assefa M.; MDPIWater hyacinth is a well-known invasive weed in lakes across the world and harms the aquatic environment. Since 2011, the weed has invaded Lake Tana substantially posing a challenge to the ecosystem services of the lake. The major factors which affect the growth of the weed are phosphorus, nitrogen, temperature, pH, salinity, and lake depth. Understanding and investigating the hotspot areas is vital to predict the areas for proper planning of interventions. The main objective of this study is therefore to predict the hotspot areas of the water hyacinth over the surface of the lake using the geographical information system (GIS)-based multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) technique. The main parameters used in the multi-criteria analysis were total phosphorus (>0.08 mg L−1), total nitrogen (>1.1 mg L−1), temperature (<26.2 °C), pH (<8.6), salinity (<0.011%), and depth (<6 m). These parameters were collected from 143 sampling sites on the lake in August, December (2016), and March (2017). Fuzzy overlay spatial analysis was used to overlay the different parameters to obtain the final prediction map of water hyacinth infestation areas. The results indicated that 24,969 ha (8.1%), 21,568.7 ha (7.1%), and 24,036 ha (7.9%) of the lake are susceptible to invasion by the water hyacinth in August, December, and March, respectively. At the maximum historical lake level, 30,728.4 ha will be the potential susceptible area for water hyacinth growth and expansion at the end of the rainy season in August. According to the result of this study, the north and northeastern parts of the lake are highly susceptible for invasion. Hence, water hyacinth management and control plans shall mainly focus on the north and northeastern part of Lake Tana and upstream contributing watersheds.Item Scaling-up Conservation Agriculture Production System (CAPS) with Drip Irrigation by Integrating MCE Technique and the APEX Model(Water, 2019) Assefa, Tewodros; Jha, Manoj; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Reyes, Manuel; Tilahun, Seifu; MDPIThe conservation agriculture production system (CAPS) approach with drip irrigation has proven to have the potential to improve water management and food production in Ethiopia. A method of scaling-up crop yield under CAPS with drip irrigation is developed by integrating a biophysical model: APEX (agricultural policy environmental eXtender), and a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) technique. Topography, land use, proximity to road networks, and population density were considered in identifying potentially irrigable land. Weather and soil texture data were used to delineate unique climate zones with similar soil properties for crop yield simulation using well-calibrated crop model parameters. Crops water demand for the cropping periods was used to determine groundwater potential for irrigation. The calibrated APEX crop model was then used to predict crop yield across the different climatic and soil zones. The MCE technique identified about 18.7 Mha of land (16.7% of the total landmass) as irrigable land in Ethiopia. Oromia has the highest irrigable land in the nation (35.4% of the irrigable land) when compared to other regional states. Groundwater could supply a significant amount of the irrigable land for dry season production under CAPS with drip irrigation for the various vegetables tested at the experimental sites with about 2.3 Mha, 3.5 Mha, 1.6 Mha, and 1.4 Mha of the irrigable land available to produce garlic, onion, cabbage, and tomato, respectively. When comparing regional states, Oromia had the highest groundwater potential (40.9% of total potential) followed by Amhara (20%) and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (16%). CAPS with drip irrigation significantly increased groundwater potential for irrigation when compared to CTPS (conventional tillage production system) with traditional irrigation practice (i.e., 0.6 Mha under CTPS versus 2.2 Mha under CAPS on average). Similarly, CAPS with drip irrigation depicted significant improvement in crop productivity when compared to CTPS. APEX simulation of the average fresh vegetable yield on the irrigable land under CAPS with drip irrigation ranged from 1.8–2.8 t/ha, 1.4–2.2 t/ha, 5.5–15.7 t/ha, and 8.3–12.9 t/ha for garlic, onion, tomato, and cabbage, respectively. CAPS with drip irrigation technology could improve groundwater potential for irrigation up to five folds and intensify crop productivity by up to three to four folds across the nation.Item Uncertainty in a Lumped and a Semi-Distributed Model for Discharge Prediction in Ghatshila Catchment(Water, 2018) Yaduvanshi, Aradhana; Srivastava, Prashant; Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Sinha, Anand Kr; MDPIHydrologic simulations of different models have direct impact on the accuracy of discharge prediction because of the diverse model structure. This study is an attempt to comprehend the uncertainty in discharge prediction of two models in the Ghatshila catchment, Subarnarekha Basin in India. A lumped Probability Distribution Model (PDM) and semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were applied to simulate the discharge from 24 years of records (1982–2005), using gridded ground based meteorological variables. The results indicate a marginal outperformance of SWAT model with 0.69 Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) for predicting discharge as compared to PDM with 0.62 NSE value. Extreme high flows are clearly depicted in the flow duration curve of SWAT model simulations. PDM model performed well in capturing low flows. However, with respect to input datasets and model complexity, SWAT requires both static and dynamic inputs for the parameterization of the model. This work is the comprehensive evaluation of discharge prediction in an Indian scenario using the selected models; ground based gridded rainfall and meteorological dataset. Uncertainty in the model prediction is established by means of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique in both of the models.Item Water resource assessment, gaps, and constraints of vegetable production in Robit and Dangishta watersheds, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia(Agricultural Water Management, 2019) Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Dile, Yihun T.; Schmitter, Petra; Jeong, Jaehak; Meki, Manyowa N.; Gerik, Thomas J.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Lefore, Nicole; Clarke, Neville; ElsevierThe vast majority of farmers in sub-Saharan Africa depend on rainfed agriculture for food production and livelihood. Various factors including but not limited to rainfall variability, land degradation, and low soil fertility constrain agricultural productivity in the region. The objectives of this study were to 1) estimate the water resources potential to sustain small-scale irrigation (SSI) in Ethiopia during the dry season so as to expand food supply by growing vegetables, and 2) understand the gaps and constraints of vegetable production. The case studies were conducted in the Robit and Dangishta watersheds of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. To document farmers’ cropping practices, field-level data were collected from 36 households who had been cultivating tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) and onion (Allium cepa L.) during the dry season (November – April). Two components of the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS) - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) – were respectively used to assess impacts of SSI at the watershed and field-scale levels. Results suggest that there is a substantial amount of surface runoff and shallow groundwater recharge at the watershed scale. The field-scale analysis in the Robit watershed indicated that optimal tomato yield could be obtained with 500 mm of water and 200 to 250 kg/ha of urea applied with 50 kg/ha of diammonium phosphate (DAP). In Dangishta, optimum onion yield can be obtained with 400 mm of water and 120 to 180 kg/ha of urea applied with 50 kg/ha of DAP. The field-scale simulation indicated that the average shallow groundwater recharge (after accounting for other groundwater users such as household and livestock use) was not sufficient to meet tomato and onion water demand in the dry season (October to April). The field-scale analysis also indicated that soil evaporation attributed a significant proportion of evapotranspiration (60% for onion and 40% for tomato). Use of mulching or other soil and water conservation interventions could optimize irrigation water for vegetable production by reducing soil evaporation and thereby increasing water availability in the crop root zone.