Consumers of fresh and processed pork in the at-home and away-from-home markets

Abstract

This study addresses the decision to eat processed and fresh pork in the at-home and away-from-home markets using qualitative choice (logit) models. Results were found by using data from consumer diaries that monitored national eating trends. These diaries were distributed and collected over the years 1997 to 2001 by the National Panel Diary. There were about 15,000 diaries that were considered in this study. The characteristics considered showed differences in the decision to eat processed and fresh pork in the at-home and away-from-home markets. Sociodemographic and economic factors (household income, age of female head, household size, sex of eater, race, ethnicity, region and market size), health indicators (dietary status and body mass index), characteristics of the female head (age, employment and education), seasonality and price were hypothesized to influence the decision to eat pork. Seasonal differences were evident given the results. Individuals have a lower probability of consumption if they are dieting; their associated female head is more academically educated; and they live in a SMSA of 2.5 million or more. Individuals have a higher probability of consumption if they are male; their associated female head is older than 50; they are from a larger household size; they are older; they have a higher body mass index; and they live in a non-SMSA. Orientals show the highest probability of consuming fresh pork both at home and away from home. Regional differences are noted with the Pacific region showing the lowest likelihood of consumption. Income is found to be a significant factor; however, it has a minimal economic impact. These results are further validated through the use of prediction success tables and through the out-of-sample testing of the 2001 data. Also, a discussion of cutoff values and an optimal cutoff value is considered for the prediction success tables. This research benefits the National Pork Board and the pork industry by showing areas to target with the development and implementation of marketing strategies.