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Developing a model for explaining and forecasting international tourist arrivals from the major markets to Malaysia
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International tourism is a multibillion dollar industry today. The East Asia and Pacific Region registered a growth rate nearly three times the world average in the last decade. With such growth and increased competition, it is important to forecast the potential of tourism in the region and understand the factors behind such growth. Malaysia was chosen as the destination country with nine major markets as the countries of origin. The nine countries selected were geographically dispersed over four continents except Africa. These markets have distinct differences and characteristics. A model was developed for each of these markets. Demand studies have been based on econometrics or economic variables. Usually these methods lack a theoretical basis, or the assumptions made do not reflect tourism as a system. This study develops a model of tourism as a system based on the empirical evidence in the literature. The Tourists Flow Model was used to postulate the theoretical basis of the mathematical model. This Model represents the flow of tourists from an Origin to attractions at the Destination. The Origin and Destination are linked physically through the Transport component and nonphysically through the Promotion component. The Service component represents hospitality for tourists at the Destination. The flow of tourists can be affected by external factors such as Social, Economic, Environmental and Political. The Model can include qualitative variables and/or non economic variables. The study suggests that current research on tourism demand has been concentrated on a few countries, notably the U.S. and European countries, and consequently, the results are not reflective of world tourism demand. Different variables affecting tourism demand emerged from this study. In conclusion, this study helps to clarify the different quantitative approaches used in demand modeling by emphasizing the purpose and limitations of each method. The mathematical foundations of modeling with Multiple Regression are analyzed, leading to certain significant findings for improving the techniques and procedures. This study reveals the potential of standardized (beta) values as a potential alternative to demand elasticities for comparisons between two or more countries and two or more variables.
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Includes bibliographical references: p. 125-138.
Issued also on microfiche from Lange Micrographics.
Chin, Loi Young (1996). Developing a model for explaining and forecasting international tourist arrivals from the major markets to Malaysia. Master's thesis, Texas A&M University. Available electronically from
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