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An Improved Procedure for Developing Calibrated Hourly Simulation Models
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In order to improve upon previous calibration techniques, this paper presents new calibration methods including a temperature bin analysis to improve hourly x-y scatter plots, a 24-hour weatherdaytype bin analysis to allow for the evaluation of hourly temperature and schedule dependent comparisons, and a 52-week bin analysis to facilitate the evaluation of long-term trends. In addition, architectural rendering is suggested as a means of verifying the building envelope dimensions and external shading placement. Several statistical methods are also reviewed to evaluate the goodness-offit including percent difference calculations, mean bias error (MBE), and the coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CV(RMSE)). The procedures are applied to a case study building located in Washington, D.C. Nine months of hourly whole-building electricity data and site-specific weather data were measured and used with the DOE- 2. ID building simulation program to test the new techniques. Use of the new calibration procedures were able to produce an hourly MBE of -0.7% and a CV(RMSE) of 23.1% which compare favorably with the most accurate hourly neural network models.
Bou-Saada, T. E.; Haberl, J. S. (1995). An Improved Procedure for Developing Calibrated Hourly Simulation Models. IBPSA-USA (http://www.ibpsa.us). Available electronically from