Energy Demand and Emissions in Building in China: Scenarios and Policy Options

Abstract

Recent rapid growth of energy use in China exerts great pressure on the energy supply and environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development in buildings, including urban residential, rural residential and service sectors (not including transport), taking into account the most up-to-date data and recent policy discussions that will affect future economic, population, and energy supply trends. To understand the role of policy options including technology options and countermeasures, two scenarios were defined, which represent the range of plausible futures for energy development in buildings. This is also part of an energy and emission scenario study for the IPAC (Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China) modeling team. The results from quantitative analysis show that energy demand in buildings in China could increase quickly, as high as 666 million in 2030. However, policies and technologies could contribute a lot to energy demand savings, which could be 28% energy savings compared with the baseline scenario. There is still space for further energy savings if more advanced technologies could be fully diffused.