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A Morphing-based Technique for the Verification of Deterministic and Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
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A new morphing based technique is proposed for the verification of deterministic precipitation forecasts. It provides accurate estimates of the components of the precipitation forecast error for a significantly longer range of the location error, and it is computationally more efficient than its earlier version. The behavior of the technique is illustrated by its application to idealized and realistic deterministic forecast examples. A set of diagnostic equations that take advantage of the new technique is introduced for the verification of ensemble forecasts of the precipitation. The diagnostic equations are applied to operational ensemble forecasts of the named winter storms of the United States from the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 winter storm season. The results indicate that the forecasts can better predict the uncertainty in the location of the storms than the uncertainty in the amount and the structure of the precipitation that they produce.
Han, Fan (2017). A Morphing-based Technique for the Verification of Deterministic and Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts. Doctoral dissertation, Texas A & M University. Available electronically from