AN EFFECTIVE FRAMEWORK FOR THE MODELING OF SEASONAL PARAMETERS FOR MEASLES USING A CONTINUOUS TIME MODEL
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Currently, measles (also known as English measles) is detrimentally affecting the youth of the developing world. The shortage of vaccines and the devastating consequences of measles yield disturbing consequences globally. According to the World Health Organization, “there were 164,000 measles deaths globally – nearly 450 deaths every day or 18 deaths every hour.” In this work an approach was developed for estimating an appropriate continuous time seasonal transmission model for the spread of measles. Estimation of this time-varying parameter is an ill-posed problem and regularization is required. Subsequently, data obtained from New York City over a twenty year period were used to formulate the problem for estimating values of the seasonal transmission parameter in New York City. Finally, the estimation problem was solved and the results were analyzed. This research shows that there is a clear relationship between school terms and seasonal parameters.
El-Halwagi, Ali (2012). AN EFFECTIVE FRAMEWORK FOR THE MODELING OF SEASONAL PARAMETERS FOR MEASLES USING A CONTINUOUS TIME MODEL. Honors and Undergraduate Research. Available electronically from