A Time Series Analysis of Food Price and Its Input Prices
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Rapid increases in consumer food price beginning in 2007 generated interest in identifying the main factors influencing these increases. In subsequent years, food prices have fluctuated, but generally have continued their ascent. The effects of crude oil, gasoline, corn, and ethanol prices, as well as, the relative foreign exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and producer price indexes for food manufacturing and fuel products on domestic food prices are examined. Because the data series are non-stationary and cointegrated, a vector error correction model is estimated. Weak exogeneity and exclusion tests in the cointegration space are performed. Directed acyclical graphs are used to specify contemporaneous causal relationships. Dynamic interactions among the series are given by impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions. Weak exogeneity tests indicate all eight series work to bring the system back into equilibrium following a shock to the system. Further, exclusion tests suggest crude oil, gasoline, food CPI, ethanol, and food PPI variables are not in the long-run relationships. Dynamic analyses suggest the following relationships. Ethanol price is not a major factor in domestic food prices, suggesting that food prices are largely unaffected by the recent increased use of corn-based ethanol for fuel. Crude oil prices, corn prices, and the relative foreign exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, however, do influence domestic food prices with corn price contributing the most to food price variability. Innovation accounting inferences are robust to potential different contemporaneous causal specifications.
Routh, Kari 1988- (2012). A Time Series Analysis of Food Price and Its Input Prices. Master's thesis, Texas A&M University. Available electronically from